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FTX's downfall and Binance's consolidation: The fragility of centralised digital finance

Author

Listed:
  • David Vidal-Tom'as
  • Antonio Briola
  • Tomaso Aste

Abstract

This paper investigates the causes of the FTX digital currency exchange's failure in November 2022. We identify the collapse of the Terra-Luna ecosystem as the pivotal event that triggered a significant decrease in the exchange's liquidity. Analysing on-chain data, we report that FTX heavily relied on leveraging and misusing its native token, FTT, and we show how this behaviour exacerbated the company's fragile financial situation. To gain further insights into the downfall, we study evolutionary dependency structures of 199 cryptocurrencies on an hourly basis, and we investigate public trades at the time of the events. Results suggest that the collapse was actively accelerated by Binance tweets causing a systemic reaction in the cryptocurrency market. Finally, identifying the actors who mostly benefited from the FTX's collapse and highlighting a generalised trend toward centralisation in the crypto space, we emphasise the importance of genuinely decentralised finance for a transparent, future digital economy.

Suggested Citation

  • David Vidal-Tom'as & Antonio Briola & Tomaso Aste, 2023. "FTX's downfall and Binance's consolidation: The fragility of centralised digital finance," Papers 2302.11371, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2302.11371
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wang, Yuanrong & Aste, Tomaso, 2023. "Dynamic portfolio optimization with inverse covariance clustering," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117701, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. R. Mantegna, 1999. "Hierarchical structure in financial markets," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 11(1), pages 193-197, September.
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    5. Yuanrong Wang & Tomaso Aste, 2022. "Sparsification and Filtering for Spatial-temporal GNN in Multivariate Time-series," Papers 2203.03991, arXiv.org.
    6. Będowska-Sójka, Barbara & Demir, Ender & Zaremba, Adam, 2022. "Hedging Geopolitical Risks with Different Asset Classes: A Focus on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    7. C. Alexander & M. Dakos, 2020. "A critical investigation of cryptocurrency data and analysis," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 173-188, February.
    8. Duan, Kun & Urquhart, Andrew, 2023. "The instability of stablecoins," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    9. Antonio Briola & Jeremy Turiel & Riccardo Marcaccioli & Alvaro Cauderan & Tomaso Aste, 2021. "Deep Reinforcement Learning for Active High Frequency Trading," Papers 2101.07107, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    10. Sirio Aramonteand & Wenqian Huang & Andreas Schrimpf, 2021. "DeFi risks and the decentralisation illusion," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    11. Briola, Antonio & Vidal-Tomás, David & Wang, Yuanrong & Aste, Tomaso, 2023. "Anatomy of a Stablecoin’s failure: The Terra-Luna case," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    12. Antonio Briola & Tomaso Aste, 2022. "Dependency structures in cryptocurrency market from high to low frequency," Papers 2206.03386, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marcin Wk{a}torek & Marcin Kr'olczyk & Jaros{l}aw Kwapie'n & Tomasz Stanisz & Stanis{l}aw Dro.zd.z, 2024. "Approaching multifractal complexity in decentralized cryptocurrency trading," Papers 2411.05951, arXiv.org.
    2. Gregory, Gadzinski & Vito, Liuzzi, 2024. "ChatGPT: A canary in the coal mine or a parrot in the echo chamber? Detecting fraud with LLM: The case of FTX," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    3. Riccardo De Blasis & Luca Galati & Rosanna Grassi & Giorgio Rizzini, 2024. "Information Flow in the FTX Bankruptcy: A Network Approach," Papers 2407.12683, arXiv.org, revised May 2025.
    4. Saengchote, Kanis & Samphantharak, Krislert, 2024. "Digital money creation and algorithmic stablecoin run," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    5. Cascavilla, Alessandro, 2024. "Between money and speculative asset: The role of financial literacy on the perception towards Bitcoin in Italy," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    6. Kotiloglu, Serhan & Ometto, M. Paola, 2024. "An exploratory look at the role of ownership in initial coin offerings (ICO): Different audiences and ICO success," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).

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