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Pandemic risk management: resources contingency planning and allocation

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  • Xiaowei Chen
  • Wing Fung Chong
  • Runhuan Feng
  • Linfeng Zhang

Abstract

Repeated history of pandemics, such as SARS, H1N1, Ebola, Zika, and COVID-19, has shown that pandemic risk is inevitable. Extraordinary shortages of medical resources have been observed in many parts of the world. Some attributing factors include the lack of sufficient stockpiles and the lack of coordinated efforts to deploy existing resources to the location of greatest needs. The paper investigates contingency planning and resources allocation from a risk management perspective, as opposed to the prevailing supply chain perspective. The key idea is that the competition of limited critical resources is not only present in different geographical locations but also at different stages of a pandemic. This paper draws on an analogy between risk aggregation and capital allocation in finance and pandemic resources planning and allocation for healthcare systems. The main contribution is to introduce new strategies for optimal stockpiling and allocation balancing spatio-temporal competitions of medical supply and demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaowei Chen & Wing Fung Chong & Runhuan Feng & Linfeng Zhang, 2020. "Pandemic risk management: resources contingency planning and allocation," Papers 2012.03200, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2012.03200
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Daron Acemoglu & Victor Chernozhukov & Iván Werning & Michael D. Whinston, 2021. "Optimal Targeted Lockdowns in a Multigroup SIR Model," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 487-502, December.
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    5. Caroline Hillairet & Olivier Lopez, 2020. "Propagation of cyber incidents in an insurance portfolio: counting processes combined with compartmental epidemiological models," Working Papers hal-02564462, HAL.
    6. Claude Lefèvre & Matthieu Simon, 2020. "SIR-Type Epidemic Models as Block-Structured Markov Processes," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 433-453, June.
    7. Victoria Gregory & Guido Menzio & David Wiczer, 2020. "Pandemic Recession: L- or V-Shaped?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 40(01), pages 1-31, May.
    8. Daron Acemoglu & Victor Chernozhukov & Ivan Werning & Micheal D Whinston, 2020. "Optimal Targeted Lockdowns in a Multi-Group SIR Model," ERSA Working Paper Series, Economic Research Southern Africa, vol. 0.
    9. repec:rza:wpaper:826 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Hua Chen & Samuel Cox, 2009. "An Option-Based Operational Risk Management Model for Pandemics," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 54-76.
    11. Amy L Greer & Dena Schanzer, 2013. "Using a Dynamic Model to Consider Optimal Antiviral Stockpile Size in the Face of Pandemic Influenza Uncertainty," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(6), pages 1-9, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wing Fung Chong & Runhuan Feng & Longhao Jin, 2023. "Holistic principle for risk aggregation and capital allocation," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 330(1), pages 21-54, November.
    2. Bal'azs Pej'o & Gergely Bicz'ok, 2021. "Games in the Time of COVID-19: Promoting Mechanism Design for Pandemic Response," Papers 2106.12329, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.

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