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Optimal shrinkage-based portfolio selection in high dimensions

Author

Listed:
  • Taras Bodnar
  • Yarema Okhrin
  • Nestor Parolya

Abstract

In this paper we estimate the mean-variance (MV) portfolio in the high-dimensional case using the recent results from the theory of random matrices. We construct a linear shrinkage estimator which is distribution-free and is optimal in the sense of maximizing with probability $1$ the asymptotic out-of-sample expected utility, i.e., mean-variance objective function for several values of risk aversion coefficient which in particular leads to the maximization of the out-of sample expected utility, to the maximization of the out-of-sample Sharpe ratio, and to the minimization of the out-of-sample variance. Its asymptotic properties are investigated when the number of assets $p$ together with the sample size $n$ tend to infinity such that $p/n \rightarrow c\in (0,+\infty)$. The results are obtained under weak assumptions imposed on the distribution of the asset returns, namely the existence of the fourth moments is only required. Thereafter we perform numerical and empirical studies where the small- and large-sample behavior of the derived estimator is investigated. The suggested estimator shows significant improvements over the naive diversification and it is robust to the deviations from normality.

Suggested Citation

  • Taras Bodnar & Yarema Okhrin & Nestor Parolya, 2016. "Optimal shrinkage-based portfolio selection in high dimensions," Papers 1611.01958, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2018.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1611.01958
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Frahm, Gabriel & Memmel, Christoph, 2010. "Dominating estimators for minimum-variance portfolios," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(2), pages 289-302, December.
    2. Ledoit, Olivier & Wolf, Michael, 2004. "A well-conditioned estimator for large-dimensional covariance matrices," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 365-411, February.
    3. Jorion, Philippe, 1986. "Bayes-Stein Estimation for Portfolio Analysis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(3), pages 279-292, September.
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    6. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    7. Jianqing Fan & Yuan Liao & Martina Mincheva, 2013. "Large covariance estimation by thresholding principal orthogonal complements," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 75(4), pages 603-680, September.
    8. Best, Michael J & Grauer, Robert R, 1991. "On the Sensitivity of Mean-Variance-Efficient Portfolios to Changes in Asset Means: Some Analytical and Computational Results," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(2), pages 315-342.
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    10. Friesen, Olga & Löwe, Matthias & Stolz, Michael, 2013. "Gaussian fluctuations for sample covariance matrices with dependent data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 270-287.
    11. Okhrin, Yarema & Schmid, Wolfgang, 2006. "Distributional properties of portfolio weights," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 235-256, September.
    12. Vasyl Golosnoy & Yarema Okhrin, 2007. "Multivariate Shrinkage for Optimal Portfolio Weights," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 441-458.
    13. Merton, Robert C., 1980. "On estimating the expected return on the market : An exploratory investigation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 323-361, December.
    14. Bodnar, Taras & Parolya, Nestor & Schmid, Wolfgang, 2018. "Estimation of the global minimum variance portfolio in high dimensions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 266(1), pages 371-390.
    15. Taras Bodnar & Wolfgang Schmid, 2009. "Econometrical analysis of the sample efficient frontier," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 317-335.
    16. Jianqing Fan & Jingjin Zhang & Ke Yu, 2012. "Vast Portfolio Selection With Gross-Exposure Constraints," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 107(498), pages 592-606, June.
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    18. Fan, Jianqing & Fan, Yingying & Lv, Jinchi, 2008. "High dimensional covariance matrix estimation using a factor model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 186-197, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Taras Bodnar & Solomiia Dmytriv & Nestor Parolya & Wolfgang Schmid, 2017. "Tests for the weights of the global minimum variance portfolio in a high-dimensional setting," Papers 1710.09587, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2019.
    2. Taras Bodnar & Holger Dette & Nestor Parolya & Erik Thors'en, 2019. "Sampling Distributions of Optimal Portfolio Weights and Characteristics in Low and Large Dimensions," Papers 1908.04243, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2019.
    3. repec:eee:jmvana:v:170:y:2019:i:c:p:63-79 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Bodnar, Taras & Okhrin, Ostap & Parolya, Nestor, 2019. "Optimal shrinkage estimator for high-dimensional mean vector," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 63-79.

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