IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1601.04043.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fighting Uncertainty with Uncertainty: A Baby Step

Author

Listed:
  • Ravi Kashyap

Abstract

We can overcome uncertainty with uncertainty. Using randomness in our choices and in what we control, and hence in the decision making process, could potentially offset the uncertainty inherent in the environment and yield better outcomes. The example we develop in greater detail is the news-vendor inventory management problem with demand uncertainty. We briefly discuss areas, where such an approach might be helpful, with the common prescription, "Don't Simply Optimize, Also Randomize; perhaps best described by the term - Randoptimization". 1. News-vendor Inventory Management 2. School Admissions 3. Journal Submissions 4. Job Candidate Selection 5. Stock Picking 6. Monetary Policy This methodology is suitable for the social sciences since the primary source of uncertainty are the members of the system themselves and presently, no methods are known to fully determine the outcomes in such an environment, which perhaps would require being able to read the minds of everyone involved and to anticipate their actions continuously. Admittedly, we are not qualified to recommend whether such an approach is conducive for the natural sciences, unless perhaps, bounds can be established on the levels of uncertainty in a system and it is shown conclusively that a better understanding of the system and hence improved decision making will not alter the outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Ravi Kashyap, 2016. "Fighting Uncertainty with Uncertainty: A Baby Step," Papers 1601.04043, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2017.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1601.04043
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1601.04043
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gérard P. Cachon & Martin A. Lariviere, 2005. "Supply Chain Coordination with Revenue-Sharing Contracts: Strengths and Limitations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(1), pages 30-44, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kashyap Ravi, 2020. "The Economics of Enlightenment: Time Value of Knowledge and the Net Present Value (NPV) of Knowledge Machines, A Proposed Approach Adapted from Finance," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 1-23, April.
    2. Kashyap Ravi, 2020. "The Economics of Enlightenment: Time Value of Knowledge and the Net Present Value (NPV) of Knowledge Machines, A Proposed Approach Adapted from Finance," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 1-23, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yanwei Chen & Xiaojun Liu & Kaiqing Huang & Huajun Tang, 2022. "Pricing and Service Effort Decisions of Book Dual-Channel Supply Chains with Showrooming Effect Based on Cost-Sharing Contracts," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-23, September.
    2. Moon, Ilkyeong & Feng, Xuehao, 2017. "Supply chain coordination with a single supplier and multiple retailers considering customer arrival times and route selection," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 78-97.
    3. Yang, Jian & Qi, Xiangtong, 2009. "On the design of coordinating contracts," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 581-594, December.
    4. Yan, Xiaoming & Zhang, Minghui & Liu, Ke, 2010. "A note on coordination in decentralized assembly systems with uncertain component yields," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 205(2), pages 469-478, September.
    5. Ventura, José A. & Bunn, Kevin A. & Venegas, Bárbara B. & Duan, Lisha, 2021. "A coordination mechanism for supplier selection and order quantity allocation with price-sensitive demand and finite production rates," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    6. Li, Bo & Hou, Peng-Wen & Chen, Ping & Li, Qing-Hua, 2016. "Pricing strategy and coordination in a dual channel supply chain with a risk-averse retailer," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 154-168.
    7. Yang, Honglin & Zhuo, Wenyan & Shao, Lusheng & Talluri, Srinivas, 2021. "Mean-variance analysis of wholesale price contracts with a capital-constrained retailer: Trade credit financing vs. bank credit financing," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 294(2), pages 525-542.
    8. van der Rhee, Bo & Schmidt, Glen & A. van der Veen, Jack A. & Venugopal, V., 2014. "Revenue-sharing contracts across an extended supply chain," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 473-482.
    9. Cruijssen, F. & Borm, P.E.M. & Fleuren, H.A. & Hamers, H.J.M., 2005. "Insinking : A Methodology to Exploit Synergy in Transportation," Other publications TiSEM 958be918-e7b4-4e46-9cbe-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    10. Mutlu, Fatih & Çetinkaya, Sıla, 2020. "Supplier–carrier–buyer channels: Contractual pricing for a carrier serving a supplier–buyer partnership," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    11. Xia Zhao & Ning Li & Liang Song, 2019. "Coordination of a Socially Responsible Two-Stage Supply Chain Under Random Demand," Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research (APJOR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 36(05), pages 1-27, October.
    12. Cao, Zong-Hong & Zhou, Yong-Wu & Zhao, Ju & Li, Chang-Wen, 2015. "Entry mode selection and its impact on an incumbent supply chain coordination," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 1-13.
    13. Donghui Yang & Yan Wang & Shue Mei, 2021. "How to balance online healthcare platforms and offline systems? A supply chain management perspective," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 502-515, March.
    14. Xin Yun & Hao Liu & Yi Li & Kin Keung Lai, 2023. "Contract design under asymmetric demand information for sustainable supply chain practices," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 324(1), pages 1429-1459, May.
    15. Hsueh, Che-Fu, 2014. "Improving corporate social responsibility in a supply chain through a new revenue sharing contract," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 214-222.
    16. Rich, Karl M. & Ross, R. Brent & Baker, A. Derek & Negassa, Asfaw, 2011. "Quantifying value chain analysis in the context of livestock systems in developing countries," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 214-222, April.
    17. Fan, Jianchang & Ni, Debing & Fang, Xiang, 2020. "Liability cost sharing, product quality choice, and coordination in two-echelon supply chains," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 284(2), pages 514-537.
    18. Zhang, Minhui & Zhang, Qin & Zhou, Dequn & Wang, Lei, 2021. "Punishment or reward? Strategies of stakeholders in the quality of photovoltaic plants based on evolutionary game analysis in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    19. Lyudmyla Starostyuk & Kay-Yut Chen & Edmund L. Prater, 2023. "Do looks matter in supply chain contracting? An experimental study," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 58(1), pages 9-23, January.
    20. Pyung-Hoi Koo, 2022. "A Capacity Cost-Sharing Contract for a Two-Stage Supply Chain with a Risk-Averse Supplier under a Bargaining Power," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-17, February.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1601.04043. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.