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Are credit ratings time-homogeneous and Markov?

Author

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  • Pedro Lencastre
  • Frank Raischel
  • Pedro G. Lind
  • Tim Rogers

Abstract

We introduce a simple approach for testing the reliability of homogeneous generators and the Markov property of the stochastic processes underlying empirical time series of credit ratings. We analyze open access data provided by Moody's and show that the validity of these assumptions - existence of a homogeneous generator and Markovianity - is not always guaranteed. Our analysis is based on a comparison between empirical transition matrices aggregated over fixed time windows and candidate transition matrices generated from measurements taken over shorter periods. Ratings are widely used in credit risk, and are a key element in risk assessment; our results provide a tool for quantifying confidence in predictions extrapolated from these time series.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro Lencastre & Frank Raischel & Pedro G. Lind & Tim Rogers, 2014. "Are credit ratings time-homogeneous and Markov?," Papers 1403.8018, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2014.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1403.8018
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mathis, Jérôme & McAndrews, James & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2009. "Rating the raters: Are reputation concerns powerful enough to discipline rating agencies?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(5), pages 657-674, July.
    2. Robert B. Israel & Jeffrey S. Rosenthal & Jason Z. Wei, 2001. "Finding Generators for Markov Chains via Empirical Transition Matrices, with Applications to Credit Ratings," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(2), pages 245-265, April.
    3. Varsanyi, Zoltan, 2007. "Rating philosophies: some clarifications," MPRA Paper 1660, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Rafael Weißbach & Patrick Tschiersch & Claudia Lawrenz, 2009. "Testing time-homogeneity of rating transitions after origination of debt," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 575-596, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. P. Lencastre & F. Raischel & P. G. Lind, 2014. "The effect of the number of states on the validity of credit ratings," Papers 1409.2661, arXiv.org.

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