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The effect of the number of states on the validity of credit ratings

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  • P. Lencastre
  • F. Raischel
  • P. G. Lind

Abstract

We explicitly test if the reliability of credit ratings depends on the total number of admissible states. We analyse open access credit rating data and show that the effect of the number of states in the dynamical properties of ratings change with time, thus giving supportive evidence that the ideal number of admissible states changes with time. We use matrix estimation methods that explicitly assume the hypothesis needed for the process to be a valid rating process. By comparing with the likelihood maximization method of matrix estimation, we quantify the "likelihood-loss" of assuming that the process is a well grounded rating process.

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  • P. Lencastre & F. Raischel & P. G. Lind, 2014. "The effect of the number of states on the validity of credit ratings," Papers 1409.2661, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1409.2661
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peura, Samu & Jokivuolle, Esa, 2004. "Simulation based stress tests of banks' regulatory capital adequacy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1801-1824, August.
    2. Jafry, Yusuf & Schuermann, Til, 2004. "Measurement, estimation and comparison of credit migration matrices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2603-2639, November.
    3. Grunert, Jens & Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2005. "The role of non-financial factors in internal credit ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 509-531, February.
    4. Robert B. Israel & Jeffrey S. Rosenthal & Jason Z. Wei, 2001. "Finding Generators for Markov Chains via Empirical Transition Matrices, with Applications to Credit Ratings," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(2), pages 245-265, April.
    5. An, Ing & Chen, Shi & Guo, Han-ying, 1984. "Search for the symmetry of the Fokker-Planck equation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 128(3), pages 520-528.
    6. Pedro Lencastre & Frank Raischel & Pedro G. Lind & Tim Rogers, 2014. "Are credit ratings time-homogeneous and Markov?," Papers 1403.8018, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2014.
    7. Lando, David & Skodeberg, Torben M., 2002. "Analyzing rating transitions and rating drift with continuous observations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 423-444, March.
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