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A model of financial contagion with variable asset returns may be replaced with a simple threshold model of cascades

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  • Teruyoshi Kobayashi

Abstract

I show the equivalence between a model of financial contagion and the threshold model of global cascades proposed by Watts (2002). The model financial network comprises banks that hold risky external assets as well as interbank assets. It is shown that a simple threshold model can replicate the size and the frequency of financial contagion without using information about individual balance sheets. Keywords: financial network, cascades, financial contagion, systemic risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Teruyoshi Kobayashi, 2013. "A model of financial contagion with variable asset returns may be replaced with a simple threshold model of cascades," Papers 1312.6804, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2014.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1312.6804
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gai, Prasanna & Kapadia, Sujit, 2010. "Contagion in financial networks," Bank of England working papers 383, Bank of England.
    2. Upper, Christian, 2011. "Simulation methods to assess the danger of contagion in interbank markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 111-125, August.
    3. J. Lorenz & S. Battiston & F. Schweitzer, 2009. "Systemic risk in a unifying framework for cascading processes on networks," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 71(4), pages 441-460, October.
    4. Lenzu, Simone & Tedeschi, Gabriele, 2012. "Systemic risk on different interbank network topologies," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(18), pages 4331-4341.
    5. Soramäki, Kimmo & Bech, Morten L. & Arnold, Jeffrey & Glass, Robert J. & Beyeler, Walter E., 2007. "The topology of interbank payment flows," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 379(1), pages 317-333.
    6. Teruyoshi Kobayashi, 2013. "Network versus portfolio structure in financial systems," Discussion Papers 1307, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    7. Nier, Erlend & Yang, Jing & Yorulmazer, Tanju & Alentorn, Amadeo, 2007. "Network models and financial stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 2033-2060, June.
    8. Gai, Prasanna & Haldane, Andrew & Kapadia, Sujit, 2011. "Complexity, concentration and contagion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(5), pages 453-470.
    9. Teruyoshi Kobayashi & Kohei Hasui, 2013. "Efficient immunization strategies to prevent financial contagion," Papers 1308.0652, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2013.
    10. Duncan J. Watts & Peter Sheridan Dodds, 2007. "Influentials, Networks, and Public Opinion Formation," Journal of Consumer Research, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(4), pages 441-458, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fabio Caccioli & Paolo Barucca & Teruyoshi Kobayashi, 2017. "Network models of financial systemic risk: A review," Papers 1710.11512, arXiv.org.
    2. Teruyoshi Kobayashi, 2015. "Trend-driven information cascades on random networks," Discussion Papers 1529, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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