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Bootstrapping topology and systemic risk of complex network using the fitness model

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Listed:
  • Nicol'o Musmeci
  • Stefano Battiston
  • Guido Caldarelli
  • Michelangelo Puliga
  • Andrea Gabrielli

Abstract

We present a novel method to reconstruct complex network from partial information. We assume to know the links only for a subset of the nodes and to know some non-topological quantity (fitness) characterising every node. The missing links are generated on the basis of the latter quan- tity according to a fitness model calibrated on the subset of nodes for which links are known. We measure the quality of the reconstruction of several topological properties, such as the network density and the degree distri- bution as a function of the size of the initial subset of nodes. Moreover, we also study the resilience of the network to distress propagation. We first test the method on ensembles of synthetic networks generated with the Exponential Random Graph model which allows to apply common tools from statistical mechanics. We then test it on the empirical case of the World Trade Web. In both cases, we find that a subset of 10 % of nodes is enough to reconstruct the main features of the network along with its resilience with an error of 5%.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicol'o Musmeci & Stefano Battiston & Guido Caldarelli & Michelangelo Puliga & Andrea Gabrielli, 2012. "Bootstrapping topology and systemic risk of complex network using the fitness model," Papers 1209.6459, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1209.6459
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Giorgio Fagiolo, 2010. "The international-trade network: gravity equations and topological properties," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 5(1), pages 1-25, June.
    2. Galluccio, S. & Caldarelli, G. & Marsili, M. & Zhang, Y.-C., 1997. "Scaling in currency exchange," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 245(3), pages 423-436.
    3. Garlaschelli, Diego & Battiston, Stefano & Castri, Maurizio & Servedio, Vito D.P. & Caldarelli, Guido, 2005. "The scale-free topology of market investments," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 350(2), pages 491-499.
    4. de Masi, G. & Iori, G. & Caldarelli, G., 2006. "A fitness model for the Italian interbank money market," Working Papers 06/08, Department of Economics, City University London.
    5. Iman van Lelyveld & Franka Liedorp, 2006. "Interbank Contagion in the Dutch Banking Sector: A Sensitivity Analysis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
    6. Battiston, Stefano & Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2012. "Liaisons dangereuses: Increasing connectivity, risk sharing, and systemic risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1121-1141.
    7. Hans Degryse & Grégory Nguyen, 2007. "Interbank Exposures: An Empirical Examination of Contagion Risk in the Belgian Banking System," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(2), pages 123-171, June.
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