Endogenous Bubbles in Derivatives Markets: The Risk Neutral Valuation Paradox
This paper highlights the role of risk neutral investors in generating endogenous bubbles in derivatives markets. We find that a market for derivatives, which has all the features of a perfect market except completeness and has some risk neutral investors, can exhibit extreme price movements which represent a violation to the Gaussian random walk hypothesis. This can be viewed as a paradox because it contradicts wide-held conjectures about prices in informationally efficient markets with rational investors. Our findings imply that prices are not always good approximations of the fundamental values of derivatives, and that extreme price movements like price peaks or crashes may have endogenous origin and happen with a higher-than-normal frequency.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Camerer, Colin, 1989. " Bubbles and Fads in Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 3-41.
- Woodford, Michael & Santos, Manuel S., 1995.
"Rational asset pricing bubbles,"
UC3M Working papers. Economics
3913, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
- Schachermayer, W., 1992. "A Hilbert space proof of the fundamental theorem of asset pricing in finite discrete time," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 249-257, December.
- Peter Lakner, 1993. "Martingale Measures For A Class of Right-Continuous Processes," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 43-53.
- Stephen A. O'Connell & Stephen P. Zeldes, "undated".
"Rational Ponzi Games,"
Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers
18-86, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Eli Ofek & Matthew Richardson, 2003. "DotCom Mania: The Rise and Fall of Internet Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1113-1138, 06.
- Philip H. Dybvig & Chi-fu Huang, 1988.
"Nonnegative Wealth, Absence of Arbitrage, and Feasible Consumption Plans,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
860, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Philip H. Dybvig, Chi-fu Huang, 1988. "Nonnegative Wealth, Absence of Arbitrage, and Feasible Consumption Plans," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(4), pages 377-401.
- De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990.
"Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
- De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H. & Waldmann, Robert J., 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Scholarly Articles 3725552, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, "undated". "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _124, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
- Harrison, J. Michael & Pliska, Stanley R., 1981. "Martingales and stochastic integrals in the theory of continuous trading," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 215-260, August.
- Alexander Cox & David Hobson, 2005. "Local martingales, bubbles and option prices," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 477-492, October.
- J. Michael Harrison & David M. Kreps, 1978. "Speculative Investor Behavior in a Stock Market with Heterogeneous Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 92(2), pages 323-336.
- Tirole, Jean, 1982. "On the Possibility of Speculation under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1163-1181, September.
- David C. Heath & Robert A. Jarrow, 2008.
"Arbitrage, Continuous Trading, and Margin Requirements,"
World Scientific Book Chapters,
in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 2, pages 33-46
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Heath, David C & Jarrow, Robert A, 1987. " Arbitrage, Continuous Trading, and Margin Requirements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(5), pages 1129-1142, December.
- Duffie, Darrell & Huang, Chi-fu, 1986. "Multiperiod security markets with differential information : Martingales and resolution times," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 283-303, June.
- Kamara, Avraham & Miller, Thomas W., 1995. "Daily and Intradaily Tests of European Put-Call Parity," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(04), pages 519-539, December.
- Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
- Cox, John C & Ross, Stephen A, 1976. "A Survey of Some New Results in Financial Option Pricing Theory," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 383-402, May.
- Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980.
"On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
- Sanford J Grossman & Joseph E Stiglitz, 1997. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1908, David K. Levine.
- Freddy Delbaen, 1992. "Representing Martingale Measures When Asset Prices Are Continuous And Bounded," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(2), pages 107-130.
- Philippe Weil, 1989.
"On The Possibility of Price Decreasing Bubbles,"
NBER Working Papers
2821, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martin Schweizer & Johannes Wissel, 2008. "Term Structures Of Implied Volatilities: Absence Of Arbitrage And Existence Results," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 77-114.
- (**), Hui Wang & Jaksa Cvitanic & (*), Walter Schachermayer, 2001. "Utility maximization in incomplete markets with random endowment," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 259-272.
- Kreps, David M., 1981. "Arbitrage and equilibrium in economies with infinitely many commodities," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 15-35, March.
- Harrison, J. Michael & Kreps, David M., 1979. "Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod securities markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 381-408, June.
- Ernst Eberlein & Jean Jacod, 1997. "On the range of options prices (*)," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 131-140.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1106.5274. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.