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Market panic on different time-scales

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  • Lisa Borland
  • Yoan Hassid

Abstract

Cross-sectional signatures of market panic were recently discussed on daily time scales in [1], extended here to a study of cross-sectional properties of stocks on intra-day time scales. We confirm specific intra-day patterns of dispersion and kurtosis, and find that the correlation across stocks increases in times of panic yielding a bimodal distribution for the sum of signs of returns. We also find that there is memory in correlations, decaying as a power law with exponent 0.05. During the Flash-Crash of May 6 2010, we find a drastic increase in dispersion in conjunction with increased correlations. However, the kurtosis decreases only slightly in contrast to findings on daily time-scales where kurtosis drops drastically in times of panic. Our study indicates that this difference in behavior is result of the origin of the panic-inducing volatility shock: the more correlated across stocks the shock is, the more the kurtosis will decrease; the more idiosyncratic the shock, the lesser this effect and kurtosis is positively correlated with dispersion. We also find that there is a leverage effect for correlations: negative returns tend to precede an increase in correlations. A stock price feed-back model with skew in conjunction with a correlation dynamics that follows market volatility explains our observations nicely.

Suggested Citation

  • Lisa Borland & Yoan Hassid, 2010. "Market panic on different time-scales," Papers 1010.4917, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1010.4917
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Taisei Kaizoji, 2006. "Power laws and market crashes," Papers physics/0603138, arXiv.org.
    2. Challet, Damien & Marsili, Matteo & Zhang, Yi-Cheng, 2001. "Stylized facts of financial markets and market crashes in Minority Games," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 294(3), pages 514-524.
    3. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Andrew Matacz & Marc Potters, 2001. "The leverage effect in financial markets: retarded volatility and market panic," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 0101120, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
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    Cited by:

    1. Reigneron, Pierre-Alain & Allez, Romain & Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe, 2011. "Principal regression analysis and the index leverage effect," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(17), pages 3026-3035.
    2. Matthias Raddant & Friedrich Wagner, 2016. "Phase transition in the S&P stock market," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 11(2), pages 229-246, October.
    3. Esteban Guevara Hidalgo, 2015. "Bin Size Independence in Intra-day Seasonalities for Relative Prices," Papers 1501.05176, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2016.

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