Market panic on different time-scales
Cross-sectional signatures of market panic were recently discussed on daily time scales in , extended here to a study of cross-sectional properties of stocks on intra-day time scales. We confirm specific intra-day patterns of dispersion and kurtosis, and find that the correlation across stocks increases in times of panic yielding a bimodal distribution for the sum of signs of returns. We also find that there is memory in correlations, decaying as a power law with exponent 0.05. During the Flash-Crash of May 6 2010, we find a drastic increase in dispersion in conjunction with increased correlations. However, the kurtosis decreases only slightly in contrast to findings on daily time-scales where kurtosis drops drastically in times of panic. Our study indicates that this difference in behavior is result of the origin of the panic-inducing volatility shock: the more correlated across stocks the shock is, the more the kurtosis will decrease; the more idiosyncratic the shock, the lesser this effect and kurtosis is positively correlated with dispersion. We also find that there is a leverage effect for correlations: negative returns tend to precede an increase in correlations. A stock price feed-back model with skew in conjunction with a correlation dynamics that follows market volatility explains our observations nicely.
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- Challet, Damien & Marsili, Matteo & Zhang, Yi-Cheng, 2001.
"Stylized facts of financial markets and market crashes in Minority Games,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,
Elsevier, vol. 294(3), pages 514-524.
- Damien Challet & Matteo Marsili & Yi-Cheng Zhang, 2001. "Stylized facts of financial markets and market crashes in Minority Games," Papers cond-mat/0101326, arXiv.org.
- Taisei Kaizoji, 2006. "Power laws and market crashes," Papers physics/0603138, arXiv.org.
- Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Andrew Matacz & Marc Potters, 2001. "The leverage effect in financial markets: retarded volatility and market panic," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 0101120, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
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