Credit Calibration with Structural Models: The Lehman case and Equity Swaps under Counterparty Risk
In this paper we develop structural first passage models (AT1P and SBTV) with time-varying volatility and characterized by high tractability, moving from the original work of Brigo and Tarenghi (2004, 2005)   and Brigo and Morini (2006). The models can be calibrated exactly to credit spreads using efficient closed-form formulas for default probabilities. Default events are caused by the value of the firm assets hitting a safety threshold, which depends on the financial situation of the company and on market conditions. In AT1P this default barrier is deterministic. Instead SBTV assumes two possible scenarios for the initial level of the default barrier, for taking into account uncertainty on balance sheet information. While in  and  the models are analyzed across Parmalat's history, here we apply the models to exact calibration of Lehman Credit Default Swap (CDS) data during the months preceding default, as the crisis unfolds. The results we obtain with AT1P and SBTV have reasonable economic interpretation, and are particularly realistic when SBTV is considered. The pricing of counterparty risk in an Equity Return Swap is a convenient application we consider, also to illustrate the interaction of our credit models with equity models in hybrid products context.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Damiano Brigo & Agostino Capponi, 2008. "Bilateral counterparty risk valuation with stochastic dynamical models and application to Credit Default Swaps," Papers 0812.3705, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2009.
- Damiano Brigo & Marco Tarenghi, 2009. "Credit Default Swap Calibration and Equity Swap Valuation under Counterparty Risk with a Tractable Structural Model," Papers 0912.3028, arXiv.org.
- Damiano Brigo & Marco Tarenghi, 2009. "Credit Default Swap Calibration and Counterparty Risk Valuation with a Scenario based First Passage Model," Papers 0912.3031, arXiv.org.
- Damiano Brigo & Kyriakos Chourdakis, 2009. "Counterparty Risk For Credit Default Swaps: Impact Of Spread Volatility And Default Correlation," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(07), pages 1007-1026.
- Briys, Eric & de Varenne, François, 1997. "Valuing Risky Fixed Rate Debt: An Extension," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(02), pages 239-248, June.
- Merton, Robert C., 1973.
"On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates,"
684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
- Damiano Brigo & Andrea Pallavicini & Vasileios Papatheodorou, 2009. "Bilateral counterparty risk valuation for interest-rate products: impact of volatilities and correlations," Papers 0911.3331, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2010.
- Damiano Brigo & Naoufel El-Bachir, 2007.
"An exact formula for default swaptions’ pricing in the SSRJD stochastic intensity model,"
ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance
icma-dp2007-14, Henley Business School, Reading University.
- Damiano Brigo & Naoufel El-Bachir, 2008. "An exact formula for default swaptions' pricing in the SSRJD stochastic intensity model," Papers 0812.4199, arXiv.org.
- Damiano Brigo, 2008. "Constant Maturity Credit Default Swap Pricing with Market Models," Papers 0812.4159, arXiv.org.
- Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2000. "A comparative analysis of current credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 59-117, January.
- C. F. Lo & H. C. Lee & C. H. Hui, 2003. "A simple approach for pricing barrier options with time-dependent parameters," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 98-107.
- Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-67, May.
- Pierre Collin-Dufresne, 2001. "Do Credit Spreads Reflect Stationary Leverage Ratios?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1929-1957, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:0912.4404. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.