Environmental Risk and Averting Behavior: Predictive Validity of Revealed and Stated Preference Data
We conduct predictive validity tests using revealed and stated behavior data from a panel survey of North Carolina coastal households. The application is to hurricane evacuation behavior. Data was initially collected after Hurricane Bonnie led to hurricane evacuations in North Carolina in 1998. Respondents were asked for their behavioral intentions if a hurricane threatened the North Carolina coast during the 1999 hurricane season. Following Hurricanes Dennis and Floyd in 1999, a follow-up survey was conducted to see if respondents behaved as they intended. A jointly estimated revealed and stated behavior model indicates that the hypothetical and real evacuation behavior is based on the same choice process. Using predictions from this model with a hypothetical bias correction we find that it predicts actual evacuation behavior with small forecast error. These results suggest that stated behavior data has some degree of predictive validity.
|Date of creation:||2004|
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- Nick Hanley & David Bell & Begona Alvarez-Farizo, 2003.
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Environmental & Resource Economics,
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"Modeling Recreation Site Choice: Do Hypothetical Choices Reflect Actual Behavior?,"
Staff Paper Series
24124, University of Alberta, Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology.
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- W. Douglass Shaw, 2002. "Testing the Validity of Contingent Behavior Trip Responses," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(2), pages 401-414.
- John C. Whitehead, 2000. "“One Million Dollars a Mile? The Opportunity Costs of Hurricane Evacuation,”," Working Papers 0005, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
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