Identifying Strategies and Beliefs without Rationality Assumptions
In this paper we formulate a solution concept without making assumptions about expected utility maximization, common knowledge or beliefs. Beliefs, strate- gies and the degree to which players are expected utility maximizers are endoge- nously determined as part of the solution. To achieve this, rather than solving the game from the players' point of view, we analyze the game as an "observer" who is not engaged in the process of the game. Our approach is an information theoretic one in which the observer utilizes an observation of play and the Maximum Entropy principle. We compare our solution concept with Bayesian Nash equilibrium and over the entropy ratio test as a method for determining the appropriateness of common modeling assumptions. We also demonstrate that the QRE concept can be signicantly generalized when viewed from the observer's perspective. For games of incomplete information we discover that alternative uses of the observer's information lead to alternative interpretations of rationality. These alternative in- terpretations of rationality may prove useful, especially in the context of ex post arbitration, as they indicate who is motivating whom.
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- Miguel A. Costa-Gomes & Vincent P. Crawford, 2004.
"Cognition and Behavior in Two-Person Guessing Games: An Experimental Study,"
ISER Discussion Paper
0613, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
- Vincent P. Crawford & Miguel A. Costa-Gomes, 2006. "Cognition and Behavior in Two-Person Guessing Games: An Experimental Study," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1737-1768, December.
- Miguel A. Costa-Gomes & Vincent P. Crawford, 2004. "Cognition and Behavior in Two-Person Guessing Games: An Experimental Study," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000113, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Miguel A. Costa-Gomes & Vincent P. Crawford, 2006. "Cognition and Behavior in Two-Person Guessing Games: An Experimental Study," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000336, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Costa-Gomes, Miguel A. & Crawford, Vincent P., 2004. "Cognition and Behavior in Two-Person Guessing Games: An Experimental Study," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt449812fx, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Miguel Costa-Gomes & Vincent P. Crawford, 2004. "Cognition And Behavior In Two-Person Guessing Games: An Experimental Study," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000143, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Colin F. Camerer & Teck-Hua Ho & Juin-Kuan Chong, 2004. "A Cognitive Hierarchy Model of Games," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(3), pages 861-898.
- Golan, Amos, 2007. "Information and entropy econometrics - volume overview and synthesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 379-387, June.
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