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The Heterogeneous Productivity Effects of Generative AI

Author

Listed:
  • David H. Kreitmeir

    (Department of Economics and SoDa Labs, Monash University)

  • Paul A. Raschky

    (Department of Economics and SoDa Labs, Monash University)

Abstract

We analyse the individual productivity effects of Italy's ban on ChatGPT, a generative pretrained transformer chatbot. We compile data on the daily coding output quantity and quality of over 36,000 GitHub users in Italy and other European countries and combine these data with the sudden announcement of the ban in a difference-in-differences framework. Among the affected users in Italy, we find a short-term increase in output quantity and quality for less experienced users and a decrease in productivity on more routine tasks for experienced users.

Suggested Citation

  • David H. Kreitmeir & Paul A. Raschky, 2024. "The Heterogeneous Productivity Effects of Generative AI," SoDa Laboratories Working Paper Series 2024-01, Monash University, SoDa Laboratories.
    • Handle: RePEc:ajr:sodwps:2024-01
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hyunyoung Choi & Hal Varian, 2012. "Predicting the Present with Google Trends," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(s1), pages 2-9, June.
    2. Xu, Yiqing, 2017. "Generalized Synthetic Control Method: Causal Inference with Interactive Fixed Effects Models," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 57-76, January.
    3. Laurent Gobillon & Thierry Magnac, 2016. "Regional Policy Evaluation: Interactive Fixed Effects and Synthetic Controls," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(3), pages 535-551, July.
    4. Jeremy Ginsberg & Matthew H. Mohebbi & Rajan S. Patel & Lynnette Brammer & Mark S. Smolinski & Larry Brilliant, 2009. "Detecting influenza epidemics using search engine query data," Nature, Nature, vol. 457(7232), pages 1012-1014, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fernandez Machado Roxana & Amaral-garcia Sofia & Duch Brown Nestor, 2025. "Workplace Adoption of In-House GenAI Tools: The Case of GPT@JRC at the European Commission," JRC Research Reports JRC143418, Joint Research Centre.
    2. Seth Benzell & Kyle Myers, 2025. "Automation Experiments and Inequality," Papers 2510.24923, arXiv.org.
    3. Sardar Bonabi & Sarah Bana & Vijay Gurbaxani & Tingting Nian, 2025. "Beyond Code: The Multidimensional Impacts of Large Language Models in Software Development," Papers 2506.22704, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2025.
    4. Sohn, Seuk Min, 2025. "Effortlessness as the measurement of the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) adoption and innovation: Towards the theory of relative AI," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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