Can Economic Growth Be Sustained? A Post-Malthusian Perspective
During the late 1990's, a spurt of growth in output and productivity led the business press, and some economists, to proclaim that the economy had entered a new era in which the old rules that governed cyclical and secular growth in the past no longer obtained. In the paper I present the results of a two sector economic growth model that demonstrates that as the share of the goods producing sectors (agriculture and manufacturing) continue to decline the service sector will have to bear almost the entire burden of sustaining productivity growth in the U.S. economy. A clear implication is that the rate of productivity growth, and the rate of output, will regress toward the rate of growth in its least productive sectors.
|Date of creation:||2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 231ClaOff Building, 1994 Buford Avenue, St. Paul, MN 55108-6040|
Phone: (612) 625-1222
Fax: (612) 625-6245
Web page: http://www.apec.umn.edu
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Paul M Romer, 1999.
"Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
2232, David K. Levine.
- Dale W. Jorgenson & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2000.
"Raising the Speed Limit: US Economic Growth in the Information Age,"
OECD Economics Department Working Papers
261, OECD Publishing.
- Dale W. Jorgenson & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2000. "Raising the Speed Limit: U.S. Economic Growth in the Information Age," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(1), pages 125-236.
- Nordhaus, William D, 1973. "World Dynamics: Measurement Without Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 83(332), pages 1156-83, December.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
- Robert E. Lucas, 2000. "Some Macroeconomics for the 21st Century," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 159-168, Winter.
- Vernon Ruttan, 1998. "The new growth theory and development economics: A survey," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 1-26.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:umaesp:14276. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.