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Can Economic Growth Be Sustained? A Post-Malthusian Perspective

  • Vernon W. Ruttan

In the United States and in other economically advanced countries, rapid productivity growth in the material-producing sectors has been the major source of productivity growth for the entire economy. Over the next several decades, continuing structural change will result in a decline in employment in the material-producing sectors to near or below 10 percent. A simulation exercise is employed to demonstrate how continued slow productivity growth in the service sectors dampens the rate of productivity growth of the entire economy. It is unlikely that productivity growth in the US economy can be sustained at anywhere near the relatively high rate achieved since the mid-1990s. Copyright 2002 by The Population Council, Inc..

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Article provided by The Population Council, Inc. in its journal Population and Development Review.

Volume (Year): 28 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 1-12

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Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:28:y:2002:i:1:p:1-12
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  1. Vernon Ruttan, 1998. "The new growth theory and development economics: A survey," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 1-26.
  2. Robert E. Lucas, 2000. "Some Macroeconomics for the 21st Century," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 159-168, Winter.
  3. Dale W. Jorgenson & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2000. "Raising the Speed Limit: U.S. Economic Growth in the Information Age," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(1), pages 125-236.
  4. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
  5. Nordhaus, William D, 1973. "World Dynamics: Measurement Without Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 83(332), pages 1156-83, December.
  6. Paul M Romer, 1999. "Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2232, David K. Levine.
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