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Cointegration And Settlement Of Commodity Futures Contracts

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  • Foster, Kenneth A.
  • Havenner, Arthur M.

Abstract

Weekly live cattle prices in various markets would be expected to share common trends, i.e., they cannot be driven by separate nonstationarities because at some point the prices will diverge sufficiently for it to be economic to cross-ship the cattle, or at least the beef. This paper extends previous bivariate work to a multivariate analysis that is capable of modeling the multiple market linkages in prices for many geographical regions. The empirical estimation represents the application of an innovation on Aoki's Linear Systems State Space model that allows determination of long- and short-run dynamics common to multiple series. The common dynamics permit characterization of the multiple markets with a limited number of states (sufficient statistics for the past), resulting in dynamic arbitrage relations between the series. A nonparametric test is used to evaluate the value of expected arbitrage forecasts implied by the structure of the model. The arbitrage relationship also is employed to generate efficient discounts/premiums for either physical delivery or cash settlement of futures contracts. The proposed settlement mechanism accounts for spatial arbitrage opportunities and therefore better represents the true geographical discounts faced by traders in individual markets.
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Suggested Citation

  • Foster, Kenneth A. & Havenner, Arthur M., 1992. "Cointegration And Settlement Of Commodity Futures Contracts," Working Papers 225874, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ucdavw:225874
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.225874
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aoki, Masanao & Havenner, Arthur, 1989. "A method for approximate representation of vector-valued time series and its relation to two alternatives," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 181-199, October.
    2. Robert Engle & Clive Granger, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
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    4. Henriksson, Roy D & Merton, Robert C, 1981. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. II. Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 513-533, October.
    5. Stephen A. Ross, 2013. "The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 1, pages 11-30, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Cerchi, Marlene & Havenner, Arthur, 1988. "Cointegration and stock prices : The random walk on wall street revisited," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 333-346.
    7. Barry K. Goodwin & Ted C. Schroeder, 1991. "Cointegration Tests and Spatial Price Linkages in Regional Cattle Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 73(2), pages 452-464.
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