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A Baseline Calibration Procedure for CGE models: An Application for DART

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  • Jin, Ding
  • Thube, Sneha Dattatraya
  • Hedtrich, Johannes
  • Henning, Christian
  • Delzeit, Ruth

Abstract

In the recent years the research interests in the field of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modeling has been placed on calibrating the baseline dynamics to forecasts. This paper suggests the formal method to calibrate all exogenous parameters of the Dynamic Applied Reional Trade (DART) model to forecasts from the the World Energy Outlook 2018 re_x0002_port. First, we determine the exogenous parameters (inputs) and forecasts (outputs) for the calibration procedure. Then we use the metamodeling method to generate surrogate models for the DART model. In the next step, we implement the Maximum A Posterior (MAP) method to estimate the exogenous parameters that are used to calibrate the baseline dynamics. Finally, we run the simulation with the estimates to test the performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Jin, Ding & Thube, Sneha Dattatraya & Hedtrich, Johannes & Henning, Christian & Delzeit, Ruth, 2019. "A Baseline Calibration Procedure for CGE models: An Application for DART," Conference papers 333057, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333057
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