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PIRAMID: a new methodology to build baselines for CGE models

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Listed:
  • Wojtowicz, Krzysztof
  • Rey, Luis
  • Temursho, Umed
  • Saveyn, Bert
  • Vandyck, Toon
  • Tamba, Marie
  • Weitzel, Matthias

Abstract

Ex ante policy assessments often need to consider economic impacts over the coming decades of for a future point in time, a task which requires a counterfactual view of how the economy would evolve in absence of the policy measure. We present a novel method (PIRAMID)to develop a baseline for CGE models by projecting a consistent combination of data into the future. In a first step, Input-Output tables are projected forward to 2050, along with satellite data and projections from demographic, macroeconomic, and energy system models. In a second step, we calibrate a CGE model to the resulting global, economy-wide dataset. The method captures structural change, is flexible to integrate various data sources and can be shared across different modelling teams, enabling data transparency and fostering an open stakeholder engagement process. JEL codes: C68, D58, F01, Q43, Q58 Keywords: Baseline; CGE modelling; Data integration; Calibration.

Suggested Citation

  • Wojtowicz, Krzysztof & Rey, Luis & Temursho, Umed & Saveyn, Bert & Vandyck, Toon & Tamba, Marie & Weitzel, Matthias, 2019. "PIRAMID: a new methodology to build baselines for CGE models," Conference papers 333023, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333023
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ciarli, Tommaso & Savona, Maria, 2019. "Modelling the Evolution of Economic Structure and Climate Change: A Review," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 51-64.
    2. Amos Golan & Stephen Vogel, 2000. "Estimation of Non-Stationary Social Accounting Matrix Coefficients with Supply-Side Information," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 447-471.
    3. Golan, Amos & Judge, George & Robinson, Sherman, 1994. "Recovering Information from Incomplete or Partial Multisectoral Economic Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(3), pages 541-549, August.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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