IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/scn/cememm/v52y2016i2p60-74.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Эконометрический Анализ Развития Сухопутных Транспортных Сетей

Author

Listed:
  • Светлов Н.М.

Abstract

Неравновесная теоретическая модель долгосрочной экономической динамики, учитывающая доступность агрегированного ресурса и удовлетворение потребностей в продукции или услугах, проверяется на адекватность процессам развития сухопутных транспортных сетей. Ее тестирование проведено на основе рядов динамики протяженности железных дорог, автомагистралей, автодорог с твердым покрытием, автодорог с покрытием и всех автомобильных дорог США за 1871–2013 гг., содержащих длительные пропуски. Использованы две неполные нелинейные авторегрессионные эмпирические спецификации, оцениваемые методом максимальной энтропии, различающиеся длительностью лага (1 год и 13 лет). В процедуре оценивания впервые применены эндогенные опорные значения оцениваемых параметров. Для тестирования нулевых гипотез разработан непараметрический критерий статистической неразличимости двух вариационных рядов – эталонного и тестируемого, основанный на площади пересечения полигонов эмпирических распределений. Спецификация с лагом продолжительностью 1 год поддерживает предложенную теоретическую модель. Оценки параметров отклоняют влияние смены технологических укладов на развитие транспортных сетей. Возможная причина – жесткое соотнесение каждого типа сети с определенным технологическим укладом, предполагаемое эмпирической спецификацией. Спецификация с 13-летним лагом отклонена, что не поддерживает значимости инвестиционного лага для процессов развития транспортных сетей.

Suggested Citation

  • Светлов Н.М., 2016. "Эконометрический Анализ Развития Сухопутных Транспортных Сетей," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 52(2), pages 60-74, апрель.
    • Handle: RePEc:scn:cememm:v:52:y:2016:i:2:p:60-74
    Note: Москва
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Dimitropoulos & Lester Hunt & Guy Judge, 2005. "Estimating underlying energy demand trends using UK annual data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 239-244.
    2. Amos Golan & Stephen Vogel, 2000. "Estimation of Non-Stationary Social Accounting Matrix Coefficients with Supply-Side Information," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 447-471.
    3. Rezek, Jon P. & Campbell, Randall C., 2007. "Cost estimates for multiple pollutants: A maximum entropy approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 503-519, May.
    4. Feng Xie & David Levinson, 2009. "Modeling the Growth of Transportation Networks: A Comprehensive Review," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 291-307, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Raimbault, Juste & Le Néchet, Florent, 2021. "Introducing endogenous transport provision in a LUTI model to explore polycentric governance systems," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    2. Du, Limin & Hanley, Aoife & Wei, Chu, 2015. "Estimating the Marginal Abatement Cost Curve of CO2 Emissions in China: Provincial Panel Data Analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 217-229.
    3. Wobst, Peter & Arndt, Channing, 2004. "HIV/AIDS and Labor Force Upgrading in Tanzania," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 1831-1847, November.
    4. Lewe, J.-H. & Hivin, L.F. & Mavris, D.N., 2014. "A multi-paradigm approach to system dynamics modeling of intercity transportation," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 188-202.
    5. Dilaver, Zafer & Hunt, Lester C, 2011. "Modelling and forecasting Turkish residential electricity demand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3117-3127, June.
    6. Eivind Lekve Bjelle & Johannes Többen & Konstantin Stadler & Thomas Kastner & Michaela C. Theurl & Karl-Heinz Erb & Kjartan-Steen Olsen & Kirsten S. Wiebe & Richard Wood, 2020. "Adding country resolution to EXIOBASE: impacts on land use embodied in trade," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-25, December.
    7. Karantininis, Kostas, 2002. "Information-based estimators for the non-stationary transition probability matrix: an application to the Danish pork industry," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1-2), pages 275-290, March.
    8. Xueguo Xu & Chen Xu & Wenxin Zhang, 2022. "Research on the Destruction Resistance of Giant Urban Rail Transit Network from the Perspective of Vulnerability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-26, June.
    9. Ishmael Ackah, 2014. "Determinants of natural gas demand in Ghana," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 38(3), pages 272-295, September.
    10. Szmytkie Robert, 2017. "Application of graph theory to the morphological analysis of settlements," Quaestiones Geographicae, Sciendo, vol. 36(4), pages 65-80, December.
    11. Dilaver, Zafer & Hunt, Lester C., 2011. "Turkish aggregate electricity demand: An outlook to 2020," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 6686-6696.
    12. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-479 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Georgakellos, Dimitrios A., 2010. "Impact of a possible environmental externalities internalisation on energy prices: The case of the greenhouse gases from the Greek electricity sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 202-209, January.
    14. Maples, Chellie H. & Hagerman, Amy D. & Lambert, Dayton M., 2022. "Ex-ante effects of the 2018 Agricultural Improvement Act’s grassland initiative," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    15. Erdogdu, Erkan, 2007. "Regulatory reform in Turkish energy industry: An analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 984-993, February.
    16. Sherman Robinson & Andrea Cattaneo & Moataz El-Said, 2001. "Updating and Estimating a Social Accounting Matrix Using Cross Entropy Methods," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 47-64.
    17. Pavithra Parthasarathi & David Levinson & Hartwig Hochmair, 2013. "Network Structure and Travel Time Perception," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(10), pages 1-13, October.
    18. Feng Xie & David Levinson, 2009. "Jurisdictional Control and Network Growth," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 459-483, September.
    19. Olufolajimi Oke & Daniel Huppmann & Max Marshall & Ricky Poulton & Sauleh Siddiqui, 2019. "Multimodal Transportation Flows in Energy Networks with an Application to Crude Oil Markets," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 521-555, June.
    20. Ping-Yu Chen & Chia-Lin Chang & Chi-Chung Chen & Michael McAleer, 2012. "Modelling the Effects of Oil Prices on Global Fertilizer Prices and Volatility," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-37, December.
    21. Adeyemi, Olutomi I. & Hunt, Lester C., 2007. "Modelling OECD industrial energy demand: Asymmetric price responses and energy-saving technical change," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 693-709, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:scn:cememm:v:52:y:2016:i:2:p:60-74. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sergei Parinov (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.cemi.rssi.ru/emm/home.htm .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.