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Statistical Emulators of Irrigated Crop Yields and Irrigation Water Requirements

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  • Blanc, Elodie

Abstract

This study provides statistical emulators of global by gridded crop models included in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project Fast Track project to estimate irrigated crop yields and associated irrigation water withdrawals simulated at the grid cell level. An ensemble of crop model simulations is used to build a panel of monthly summer weather variables and corresponding annual yields and irrigation water withdrawals from five gridded crop models. This dataset is then used to estimate crop-specific response functions for each crop model. The average normalized root mean square errors for the response functions range from 3% to 6% for irrigated yields and 2% to 8% for irrigated water withdrawal. Further in- and out-of-sample validation exercises confirm that the statistical emulators are able to replicate the crop models’ spatial patterns of irrigated crop yields and irrigation water withdrawals reasonably well, both in levels and in terms of changes overtime, although accuracy varies by model and by region. The emulators estimated in this study therefore provides a reliable and computationally efficient alternative to global gridded crop yield models.

Suggested Citation

  • Blanc, Elodie, 2019. "Statistical Emulators of Irrigated Crop Yields and Irrigation Water Requirements," Conference papers 333018, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333018
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/333018/files/9167.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Elodie Blanc & Eric Strobl, 2013. "The impact of climate change on cropland productivity: evidence from satellite based products at the river basin scale in Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(4), pages 873-890, April.
    2. Liu, Junguo & Williams, Jimmy R. & Zehnder, Alexander J.B. & Yang, Hong, 2007. "GEPIC - modelling wheat yield and crop water productivity with high resolution on a global scale," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 478-493, May.
    3. Bernhard Schauberger & Sotirios Archontoulis & Almut Arneth & Juraj Balkovic & Philippe Ciais & Delphine Deryng & Joshua Elliott & Christian Folberth & Nikolay Khabarov & Christoph Müller & Thomas A. , 2017. "Consistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-9, April.
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