IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/pugtwp/332717.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Ukraine’s unconsidered losses from the annexation of Crimea: What should we account for in the DCFTA forecasts?

Author

Listed:
  • Olekseyuk, Zoryana
  • Schuerenberg-Frosch, Hannah

Abstract

In March 2014 Crimea unilaterally declared its independence from Ukraine and joined the Russian Federation. The separation of a part of a state's territory and economy is an interesting matter to look into. Not only the economy of Ukraine has shrunk, it has also changed its structure as Crimea had a quite distinct production pattern compared to the rest of Ukraine. Moreover, policy measures that have been initialized before the separation may have different effects once applied only to a part of the former economy. This paper proposes a strategy to model the separation of part of an economy and its inclusion into another country and applies this strategy to the case of Crimea, Ukraine and Russia. After having constructed a model for the new geographical and economic situation we re-investigate the possible effects of a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) between Ukraine and the EU and compare the results for the situation with Crimea as part of Ukraine. We find that the annexation of Crimea leads to severe economic losses for Ukraine which are partly over-proportional compared to Crimea's economic size. These negative effects can be compensated by implementing the DCFTA with the EU as we also show in our model results.

Suggested Citation

  • Olekseyuk, Zoryana & Schuerenberg-Frosch, Hannah, 2016. "Ukraine’s unconsidered losses from the annexation of Crimea: What should we account for in the DCFTA forecasts?," Conference papers 332717, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332717
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/332717/files/7921.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David L. Hummels & Georg Schaur, 2013. "Time as a Trade Barrier," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(7), pages 2935-2959, December.
    2. Maryla Maliszewska & Irina Orlova & Svitlana Taran, 2009. "Deep Integration with the EU and its Likely Impact on Selected ENP Countries and Russia," CASE Network Reports 0088, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    3. Suk-In Chang, 1997. "The Effects of Economic Integration Between North and South Korea: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 1-16.
    4. David Hummels, 2007. "Transportation Costs and International Trade in the Second Era of Globalization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 131-154, Summer.
    5. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    6. Robert C. Feenstra, 2010. "Measuring the gains from trade under monopolistic competition," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(1), pages 1-28, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zoryana Olekseyuk & Edward J. Balistreri, 2018. "Trade liberalization gains under different trade theories: a case study for Ukraine," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(3), pages 507-542, August.
    2. Zoryana Olekseyuk, 2015. "The EU-Ukraine Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement and the importance of FDI," EcoMod2015 8391, EcoMod.
    3. Zoryana Olekseyuk, 2016. "Modeling of FDI in business services: Additional effects in case of Ukraine's European integration," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(7), pages 1010-1043, October.
    4. Olekseyuk, Zoryana, 2015. "The EU-Ukraine Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement and the Importance of FDI," Conference papers 332588, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    5. Christian Volpe Martincus, 2016. "Out of the Border Labyrinth: An Assessment of Trade Facilitation Initiatives in Latin America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 96856, February.
    6. Chen, Natalie & Novy, Dennis, 2008. "International Trade Integration: A Disaggregated Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 7103, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Chu Ping Lo, 2018. "China's New Silk Road and China-EU Trade," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 19(2), pages 683-701, November.
    8. Coşar, A. Kerem & Demir, Banu, 2018. "Shipping inside the box: Containerization and trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 331-345.
    9. Jean‐Noël Barrot & Erik Loualiche & Matthew Plosser & Julien Sauvagnat, 2022. "Import Competition and Household Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(6), pages 3037-3091, December.
    10. Leibovici, Fernando & Waugh, Michael E., 2019. "International trade and intertemporal substitution," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 158-174.
    11. Thomas Orliac, 2012. "The economics of trade facilitation [L'économie de la facilitation des échanges]," SciencePo Working papers Main tel-03681980, HAL.
    12. Imad Kareem Alaamshani & Hanny Zurina Hamzah & Shivee Ranjanee Kaliappan & Normaz Wana Ismail, 2021. "Impact of Trade Facilitation on Extensive Margin," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 4, pages 131-147.
    13. Balistreri, Edward J. & Tarr, David G., 2017. "Market Structure and the impact of RCEP in The Philippines: What are the Differences between Melitz, Krugman and Armington Models," Conference papers 332835, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    14. Lux, Matthias, 2011. "Defying Gravity: The Substitutability of Transportation in International Trade," MPRA Paper 36395, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2012.
    15. Chen, Natalie & Novy, Dennis, 2011. "Gravity, trade integration, and heterogeneity across industries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 206-221.
    16. Francesca Barbiero & Michael Blanga-Gubbay & Valeria Cipollone & Koen De Backer & Sébastien Miroudot & Alexandros Ragoussis & André Sapir & Reinhilde Veugelers & Erkki Vihriälä & Guntram B. Wolff & Ge, . "Manufacturing Europe’s future," Blueprints, Bruegel, number 795, December.
    17. Balistreri, Edward J. & Tarr, David G., 2020. "Comparison of deep integration in the Melitz, Krugman and Armington models: The case of The Philippines in RCEP," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 255-271.
    18. Ardelean, Adina & Lugovskyy, Volodymyr, 2023. "It Pays to be big: Price discrimination in maritime shipping," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    19. Benjamin Bridgman, 2008. "Energy Prices and the Expansion of World Trade," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(4), pages 904-916, October.
    20. Volpe Martincus, Christian, 2016. "Out of the Border Labyrinth: An Assessment of Trade Facilitation Initiatives in Latin America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 7994.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Development;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332717. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.