IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/pugtwp/331150.html

From 0 to 60 without a Hitch? Regulated Efficiency, WTO Accession, and the Motor Vehicle Sector in China

Author

Listed:
  • Francois, Joseph F.
  • Spinanger, Dean

Abstract

With China's automobile market rapidly expanding into the fourth largest in the world, the question arises about how it will come to grips with the massive restructuring problems it is facing. This paper is concerned with the interaction of regulated efficiency and WTO accession, and its impact on China’s motor vehicle sector. The approach is general equilibrium using GTAP5 aggregated to 23 sectors and 25 regions. Regulatory reform and internal restructuring are seen as being critical to the impact on the sector. Such a restructuring is represented here by a cost reduction following from consolidation and rationalization. This involves movement of costs toward global norms. Without such restructuring, WTO accession would mean that imports of final vehicles would surge, though imports of parts could well fall as production moves offshore. However, with restructuring, it could be assumed that the final assembly industry can be made competitive by world standards. What hitches might be involved or rather how smooth will the ride be to 60mph? And will the ride get bumpy for other production locations?

Suggested Citation

  • Francois, Joseph F. & Spinanger, Dean, 2003. "From 0 to 60 without a Hitch? Regulated Efficiency, WTO Accession, and the Motor Vehicle Sector in China," Conference papers 331150, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:331150
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/331150/files/1392.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kilkenny, Maureen & Robinson, Sherman, 1990. "Computable general equilibrium analysis of agricultural liberalization: Factor mobility and macro closure," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 527-556.
    2. Whalley, John, 1984. "The North-South Debate and the Terms of Trade: An Applied General Equilibrium Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(2), pages 224-234, May.
    3. Huff, Karen & Thomas W. Hertel, 2001. "Decomposing Welfare Changes in GTAP," GTAP Technical Papers 308, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    4. Hamilton, Robert W & Whalley, John, 1985. "Geographically Discriminatory Trade Arrangements," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 446-455, August.
    5. Hanslow, Kevin, 2000. "A General Welfare Decomposition For Cge Models," Technical Papers 28724, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    6. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    7. Whalley, John, 1982. "An evaluation of the Tokyo Round trade agreement using general equilibrium computational methods," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 341-361, November.
    8. Brown, Drusilla K., 1987. "Tariffs, the terms of trade, and national product differentiation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 503-526.
    9. Randall Wigle, 1988. "General Equilibrium Evaluation of Canada-U.S. Trade Liberalization in a Global Context," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 21(3), pages 539-564, August.
    10. Deardorff, Alan V. & Stern, Robert M., 1981. "A disaggregated model of world production and trade: An estimate of the impact of the Tokyo Round," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 127-152, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Scott McDonald & Terrie Walmsley, 2004. "Preferential Trade Agreements and the Optimal Liberalisation of Agricultural Trade," Working Papers 2004010, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2004.
    2. Peter Lloyd & Xiao-guang Zhang, 2006. "The Armington Model," Staff Working Papers 0602, Productivity Commission, Government of Australia.
    3. Dissanayake, Sumali & Mahadevan, Renuka & Asafu-Adjaye, John, 2019. "Is there a role for trade liberalization in mitigating the impacts of climate change on agriculture?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 307-324.
    4. Ricardo Arguello, 2004. "An exporatory assessment of the potential impact of the free trade area of the americas on the andean community," Borradores de Investigación 4332, Universidad del Rosario.
    5. Frank van Tongeren & Robert Koopman & Stephen Karingi & John Reilly & Joseph Francois, 2021. "Back to the Future: A 25-Year Retrospective on GTAP and the Shaping of a New Agenda," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Peter Dixon & Joseph Francois & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe (ed.), POLICY ANALYSIS AND MODELING OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY A Festschrift Celebrating Thomas Hertel, chapter 3, pages 41-93, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Lewis, Jeffrey D. & Robinson, Sherman & Wang, Zhi, 1995. "Beyond the Uruguay Round: The implications of an Asian free trade area," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 35-90.
    7. Pierre Boulanger & Hasan Dudu & Emanuele Ferrari & George Philippidis, 2016. "Russian Roulette at the Trade Table: A Specific Factors CGE Analysis of an Agri-food Import Ban," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(2), pages 272-291, June.
    8. Balistreri, Edward J. & Markusen, James R., 2009. "Sub-national differentiation and the role of the firm in optimal international pricing," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 47-62, January.
    9. Hertel, Thomas & Hummels, David & Ivanic, Maros & Keeney, Roman, 2007. "How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 611-635, July.
    10. Elbehri, Aziz & Leetmaa, Susan E., 2001. "How Significant Are Export Subsidies To Agricultural Trade? Trade And Welfare Implications Of Global Reforms," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20518, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    11. Laborde, David & Martin, Will & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2008. "Implications of the 2008 Doha Draft Agricultural and NAMA Market Access Modalities for Developing Countries," Conference papers 331719, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    12. Robinson, Sherman & Burfisher, Mary E. & Hinojosa-Ojeda, Raul & Thierfelder, Karen E., 1993. "Agricultural policies and migration in a U.S.-Mexico free trade area: A computable general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 15(5-6), pages 673-701.
    13. Hans Meijl & Frank Tongeren, 1998. "Trade, technology spillovers, and food production in China," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 134(3), pages 423-449, September.
    14. Lee, Hiro & Roland-Holst, David, 1999. "Cooperation or Confrontation in U.S.-Japan Trade? Some General Equilibrium Estimates," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 119-139, June.
    15. Aguiar, Angel & Corong, Erwin & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2020. "The GTAP Recursive Dynamic (GTAP-RD) Model: Version 1.0," Conference papers 333133, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    16. Theodoros N. Chatzivasileiadis & Marjan W. Hofkes & Onno J. Kuik & Richard S.J. Tol, 2016. "Full economic impacts of sea level rise: loss of productive resources and transport disruptions," Working Paper Series 9916, Department of Economics, University of Sussex.
    17. Erwin Corong & Thomas Hertel & Robert McDougall & Marinos Tsigas & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2017. "The Standard GTAP Model, version 7," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 2(1), pages 1-119, June.
    18. Berrittella Maria & Cimino Filippo Alessandro, 2017. "An Assessment of Carousel Value-Added Tax Fraud in The European Carbon Market," Review of Law & Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 1-19, July.
    19. Terrie L. Walmsley & Thomas W. Hertel & Elena Ianchovichina, 2006. "Assessing The Impact Of China'S Wto Accession On Investment," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 315-339, October.
    20. Edward Balistreri & Christoph Boehringer & Thomas Rutherford, 2025. "Quantifying Disruptive Trade Policies," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 10(1), pages 1-49, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:331150. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.