IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/nccest/37604.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Hedge Effectiveness Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Dahlgran, Roger A.
  • Ma, Xudong

Abstract

This study focuses on hedging effectiveness defined as the proportionate price risk reduction created by hedging. By mathematical and simulation analysis we determine the following: (a) the regression R2 in the hedge ratio regression will generally overstate the amount of price risk reduction that can be achieved by hedging, (b) the properly computed hedging effectiveness in the hedge ratio regression will also generally overstate the amount of risk reduction that can be achieved by hedging, (c) the overstatement in (b) declines as the sample size increases, (d) application of estimated hedge ratios to non sample data results in an unbiased estimate of hedging effectiveness, (e) application of hedge ratios computed from small samples presents a significant chance of actually increasing price risk by hedging, and (f) comparison of in sample and out of sample hedging effectiveness is not the best method for testing for structural change in the hedge ratio regression.

Suggested Citation

  • Dahlgran, Roger A. & Ma, Xudong, 2008. "Hedge Effectiveness Forecasting," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37604, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:nccest:37604
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.37604
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/37604/files/confp08-08.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.37604?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rahman, Shaikh Mahfuzur & Turner, Steven C. & Costa, Ecio de Farias, 2001. "Cross-Hedging Cottonseed Meal," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 19(2), pages 1-9.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dahlgran, Roger A., 2007. "Inventory and Transformation Hedging Effectiveness in Corn Crushing," 2007 Conference, April 16-17, 2007, Chicago, Illinois 37557, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    2. Franken, Jason R.V. & Parcell, Joe L., 2003. "Cash Ethanol Cross-Hedging Opportunities," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(3), pages 510-516, December.
    3. Adams, Zeno & Gerner, Mathias, 2012. "Cross hedging jet-fuel price exposure," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1301-1309.
    4. Dahlgran, Roger A., 2005. "Hedging Cash Flows from Commodity Processing," 2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri 19046, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    5. Quintino, Derick David & David, Sergio Adriani, 2013. "Quantitative analysis of feasibility of hydrous ethanol futures contracts in Brazil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 927-935.
    6. Kim, Seon-Woong & Brorsen, B. Wade & Yoon, Byung-Sam, 2014. "Optimal Cross Hedging Winter Canola," 2014 Annual Meeting, February 1-4, 2014, Dallas, Texas 162428, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    7. Ismael Pérez-Franco & Esteban Otto Thomasz & Gonzalo Rondinone & Agustín García-García, 2022. "Feed price risk management for sheep production in Spain: a composite future cross-hedging strategy," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(2), pages 137-163, June.
    8. Dahlgran, Roger A., 2002. "Inventory And Transformation Risks In Soybean Processing," 2002 Conference, April 22-23, 2002, St. Louis, Missouri 19054, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    9. Regmund, Wes & Robinson, John & Anderson, David, "undated". "Higher and More Stable Returns From Cottonseed," 2017 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2017, Mobile, Alabama 252813, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural Finance;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:nccest:37604. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dauiuus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.