Uncovering Dominant-Satellite Relationships in the U.S. Soybean Basis: A Spatio-Temporal Analysis

Time series analysis shows that local soybean basis levels have some tendency to follow or be determined by the basis levels at export locations (Toledo and U.S. Gulf). Processing centers tend to show the most independence in basis discovery. Spatial modeling shows that each local basis produces a "spillover" and impacts neighboring basis levels. The spatial linkages are greatest during the spring and tend to be the lowest during fall. The results suggest that soybean basis discovery may be concentrated at export locations within the U.S. marketing system. Moreover, these dominant-satellite relationships are strongest during the spring season. Market practitioners may utilize this information when forming expectations for basis levels during the marketing year.