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On the Relationship of Expected Supply and Demand to Futures Prices

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  • Chua, Hans Walter P.
  • Tomek, William G.

Abstract

Expectations about future economic conditions are important determinants of commodity prices. This paper presents a relatively simple model that makes futures prices for corn a function of expected production and inventories and of variables that account for demand shifts. The intent is to provide an historical, objective context for new price and quantity observations, which may help market analysts.

Suggested Citation

  • Chua, Hans Walter P. & Tomek, William G., 2010. "On the Relationship of Expected Supply and Demand to Futures Prices," 2010 Conference, April 19-20, 2010, St. Louis, Missouri 285311, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:nccc10:285311
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.285311
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/285311/files/confp19-10.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tomek, William G., 1979. "Estimating Demand Relations Using Futures Prices," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 31(4), pages 1-10, October.
    2. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    3. Mark, Darrell R. & Brorsen, B. Wade & Anderson, Kim B. & Small, Rebecca M., 2008. "Price Risk Management Alternatives for Farmers in the Absence of Forward Contracts with Grain Merchants," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 23(2), pages 1-4.
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    Cited by:

    1. Goyal, Raghav & Adjemian, Michael K & Secor, William, 2025. "Better supply elasticities improve commodity policy: The federal response to the Covid-19 pandemic," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).

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