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Financial And Risk Analysis Of Maize Technology In Ethiopia, Based On Ceres-Maize Model Results

  • Crawford, Eric W.
  • Howard, Julie A.
  • Kelly, Valerie A.

This paper presents a financial and risk analysis of improved versus traditional maize production technology in Ethiopia, based on yields simulated with the CERES-Maize crop growth model (Schulthess and Ward, 2000). The purpose is to analyze the potential performance of the SG2000/Ministry of Agriculture program technology under less favorable meteorological conditions (rainfall level and distribution), and in areas with lower agroecological potential than those covered by the SG2000/MOA program through 1998. At the time of this study, expansion of the MOA program into lower potential zones seemed likely. Results show that use of fertilizer and improved seed is highly profitable under a variety of assumptions about crop growth conditions, maize prices, and fertilizer costs. Risk is examined using simple sensitivity and breakeven analysis, and stochastic dominance analysis.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/11799
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Paper provided by Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics in its series Staff Papers with number 11799.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:ags:midasp:11799
Contact details of provider: Postal: Justin S. Morrill Hall of Agriculture, 446 West Circle Dr., Rm 202, East Lansing, MI 48824-1039
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Web page: http://www.aec.msu.edu/agecon/Email:


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  1. Wafula, Benson M., 1995. "Applications of crop simulation in agricultural extension and research in Kenya," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 399-412.
  2. Howard, Julie A. & Kelly, Valerie A. & Demeke, Mulat & Maredia, Mywish K. & Stepanek, Julie, 1999. "Green Revolution Technology Takes Root in Africa: The Promise and Challenge of the Ministry of Agriculture/Sg2000 Experiment with Improved Cereals Technology in Ethiopia," Food Security International Development Policy Syntheses 11400, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
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