IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/kuliwp/31876.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Re-Examination Of Excess Sensitivity Puzzle When Consumers Forecast The Income Process

Author

Listed:
  • Banerjee, Anurag N.
  • Basu, Parantap

Abstract

In this paper, we address the issue of excess sensitivity/ smoothness of consumption purely from an estimation and forecasting point of view. Suppose the agent estimates the income process using the past income data and obtains best linear unbiased forecasts of future income and then she computes permanent income using these forecasts. How far will she be if she misspecies the income process as a trend stationary process when truly it is diference stationary? Using the recently developed sensitivity indices for forecasts, we argue that for a plausible characterization of the deterministic trend term in the income process, the mispecication bias for estimate of marginal propensity to consume is of second order importance.

Suggested Citation

  • Banerjee, Anurag N. & Basu, Parantap, 1998. "A Re-Examination Of Excess Sensitivity Puzzle When Consumers Forecast The Income Process," PRG Working Papers 31876, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:kuliwp:31876
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.31876
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/31876/files/prg-wp17.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.31876?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Banerjee, Anurag N, 2001. "Sensitivity of Univariate AR(1) Time-Series Forecasts Near the Unit Root," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 203-229, April.
    2. Zeldes, Stephen P, 1989. "Consumption and Liquidity Constraints: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 305-346, April.
    3. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Mankiw, N Gregory & Shapiro, Matthew D, 1986. "Risk and Return: Consumption Beta versus Market Beta," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(3), pages 452-459, August.
    5. Vinod, H. D. & Basu, Parantap, 1995. "Forecasting consumption, income and real interest rates from alternative state space models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 217-231, June.
    6. Banerjee, Anurag N. & Magnus, Jan R., 1999. "The sensitivity of OLS when the variance matrix is (partially) unknown," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 295-323, October.
    7. Dufour, Jean-Marie & King, Maxwell L., 1991. "Optimal invariant tests for the autocorrelation coefficient in linear regressions with stationary or nonstationary AR(1) errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 115-143, January.
    8. Magnus, J.R. & Pesaran, B., 1988. "The bias of forecasts from a first-order autoregression (Revised version)," Discussion Paper 1988-2, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    9. Banerjee, A.N., 1997. "Sensitivity of Univariate AR(1) Time-series Forecasts Near the Unit Root," Other publications TiSEM c4426b26-dd11-4e11-8cf2-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    10. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
    11. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Antonio Moreno & Seonghoon Cho, 2012. "The Deaton paradox in a long memory context with structural breaks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(25), pages 3309-3322, September.
    2. Perron, Pierre & Rodriguez, Gabriel, 2003. "GLS detrending, efficient unit root tests and structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-27, July.
    3. Patrick Marsh, "undated". "A Measure of Distance for the Unit Root Hypothesis," Discussion Papers 05/02, Department of Economics, University of York.
    4. Okubo, Masakatsu, 2002. "Long-Run Relationship between Consumption and Income in Japan: Tests of the Deterministic Cointegration Restriction," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 253-278, June.
    5. Banerjee, A.N., 1997. "The sensitivity of estimates, inferences and forecasts of linear models," Other publications TiSEM 3238733e-f996-4fd9-95ec-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Parise, Gerald F., 1994. "Permanent income hypothesis and the cost of adjustment," ISU General Staff Papers 1994010108000012303, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    7. Anikó Bíró, 2013. "Subjective mortality hazard shocks and the adjustment of consumption expenditures," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1379-1408, October.
    8. Kim, H. Youn, 2017. "The permanent income hypothesis, transitional dynamics, and excess sensitivity of consumption," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 10-25.
    9. Pierre Perron & Gabriel Rodríguez, "undated". "Residuals-based Tests for Cointegration with GLS Detrended Data," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2015-017, Boston University - Department of Economics, revised 19 Oct 2015.
    10. Alessandro Federici & Pierluigi Montalbano, 2012. "Macroeconomic volatility, consumption behaviour and welfare: A cross-country analysis," Working Paper Series 3612, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    11. Guillén, Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho & Issler, João Victor & Franco-Neto, Afonso Arinos de Mello, 2014. "On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century and beyond," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 62-78.
    12. Paqué, Karl-Heinz, 1991. "Structural wage rigidity in West Germany 1950-1989: Some new econometric evidence," Kiel Working Papers 489, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    13. Hubbard, R. Glenn & Skinner, Jonathan & Zeldes, Stephen P., 1994. "The importance of precautionary motives in explaining individual and aggregate saving," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 59-125, June.
    14. Jonathan A. Parker, 2003. "Consumption Risk and Expected Stock Returns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 376-382, May.
    15. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:7:y:2006:i:4:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Sawada Yasuyuki & Sugawara Shinya & Shoji Masahiro & Shinkai Naoko, 2014. "The Role of Infrastructure in Mitigating Poverty Dynamics: The Case of an Irrigation Project in Sri Lanka," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 14(3), pages 1-28, July.
    17. Alejandro Diaz-Bautista, 2004. "Tijuana's Dynamic Unemployment and Output Growth," Labor and Demography 0401001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. repec:idn:jimfjn:v:4:y:2018:i:1f:p:1-16 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Magda Kandil & Ida Mirzaie, 2006. "Consumption and macroeconomic policies: Theory and evidence from developing countries," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 469-491.
    20. Robert A. Amano & Simon van Norden, 1995. "Unit Root Tests and the Burden of Proof," Econometrics 9502005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Charlotte Ostergaard & Bent E. Serensen & Oved Yosha, 2002. "Consumption and Aggregate Constraints: Evidence from U.S. States and Canadian Provinces," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(3), pages 634-645, June.
    22. Ziliak, James P., 1998. "Does the choice of consumption measure matter? An application to the permanent-income hypothesis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 201-216, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumer/Household Economics;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:kuliwp:31876. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/licosbe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.