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A Re-Examination Of Excess Sensitivity Puzzle When Consumers Forecast The Income Process

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  • Banerjee, Anurag N.
  • Basu, Parantap

Abstract

In this paper, we address the issue of excess sensitivity/ smoothness of consumption purely from an estimation and forecasting point of view. Suppose the agent estimates the income process using the past income data and obtains best linear unbiased forecasts of future income and then she computes permanent income using these forecasts. How far will she be if she misspecies the income process as a trend stationary process when truly it is diference stationary? Using the recently developed sensitivity indices for forecasts, we argue that for a plausible characterization of the deterministic trend term in the income process, the mispecication bias for estimate of marginal propensity to consume is of second order importance.

Suggested Citation

  • Banerjee, Anurag N. & Basu, Parantap, 1998. "A Re-Examination Of Excess Sensitivity Puzzle When Consumers Forecast The Income Process," PRG Working Papers 31876, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:kuliwp:31876
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.31876
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Banerjee, Anurag N, 2001. "Sensitivity of Univariate AR(1) Time-Series Forecasts Near the Unit Root," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 203-229, April.
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    6. Dufour, Jean-Marie & King, Maxwell L., 1991. "Optimal invariant tests for the autocorrelation coefficient in linear regressions with stationary or nonstationary AR(1) errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 115-143, January.
    7. Magnus, J.R. & Pesaran, B., 1988. "The bias of forecasts from a first-order autoregression (Revised version)," Discussion Paper 1988-2, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    8. Banerjee, A.N., 1997. "Sensitivity of Univariate AR(1) Time-series Forecasts Near the Unit Root," Other publications TiSEM c4426b26-dd11-4e11-8cf2-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
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