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Estimation of private stock of food grains in Bangladesh: Data sources and methodological issues

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  • Jabbar, Mohammad A.

Abstract

Empirical studies to explain the reasons behind the 2007-2008 price volatility in the global food grain markets showed that among other factors, food grain stock especially stock-to-use ratio, was a major factor in price volatility. It has also been found that current data on stock at both global and national levels are inadequate, of poor quality and there is much to gain from investing in improving its quality for better understanding the price volatility in food grain markets and for take more appropriate policy decisions. Efforts are currently underway through a global project on Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) for improving the mechanism of collection and dissemination of food grain stock data. This study has been conducted as a part of that project implemented in Bangladesh. Past efforts in the collection and dissemination of food grain stock data in Bangladesh and their conceptual and methodological strengths and weaknesses have been reviewed with a view to identify data gaps, methodological deficiencies and suggest measures required for improvement. The review revealed that currently there is no mechanism for regular collection and dissemination of food grain stock data in spite of its usefulness in the formulation of food policy and monitoring food grain markets and prices. The accuracy of the economy-wide monthly stocks depends on the accuracy of the parameters and the assumptions made about gross and net production, marketed surplus and sales pattern by month, population, per capita consumption as well as estimates on carryover stocks, domestic procurement and disposal. There is hardly any consensus on the accuracy of the available statistics on these parameters either from nationwide or from sample surveys. Recommendations have been made on mechanism of good quality stock data collection using proper conceptual and methodological approaches.

Suggested Citation

  • Jabbar, Mohammad A., 2016. "Estimation of private stock of food grains in Bangladesh: Data sources and methodological issues," Research Reports 251966, International Livestock Research Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:ilrirr:251966
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    File URL: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/251966/files/2016-Estimation%20of%20private%20stock%20of%20foodgrains-Final.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jabbar, Mohammad A., 2009. "Estimation of Private Stock of Rice in Bangladesh:In Search of a Practicable Methodology," Research Reports 208729, International Livestock Research Institute.
    2. Brian D. Wright, 2011. "The Economics of Grain Price Volatility," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 32-58.
    3. John Baffes & Tassos Haniotis, 2016. "What Explains Agricultural Price Movements?," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(3), pages 706-721, September.
    4. Baffes,John & Haniotis,Tassos, 2016. "What explains agricultural price movements ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7589, The World Bank.
    5. Jabbar, Mohammad A & Ziauddin, A T M & Abedin, M Zainul, 2010. "Towards improving food security and sustainable livelihoods of resource poor farmers in Bangladesh: Impact of the FoSHoL project," Research Reports 208731, International Livestock Research Institute.
    6. Abbott, Philip C. & Hurt, Christopher & Tyner, Wallace E., 2011. "What’s Driving Food Prices in 2011?," Issue Reports 112927, Farm Foundation.
    7. Trostle, Ronald, 2008. "Fluctuating Food Commodity Prices: A Complex Issue With No Easy Answers," Amber Waves:The Economics of Food, Farming, Natural Resources, and Rural America, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, pages 1-8, November.
    8. Timmer, C. Peter, 2010. "Reflections on food crises past," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-11, February.
    9. Alam, Shamsul & Afruz, Siren, 2002. "Marketable And Marketed Surpluses Of Some Leading Crops In Bangladesh: Recent Trends And Policy Implications," Bangladesh Journal of Agricultural Economics, Bangladesh Agricultural University, vol. 25(2).
    10. Rosamond L. Naylor & Walter P. Falcon, 2010. "Food Security in an Era of Economic Volatility," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(4), pages 693-723, December.
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    Keywords

    Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Marketing; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;

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