IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/iffp23/97538.html

Alternative Industrial Development Paths for Indonesia: Sam and CGE Analyses

Author

Listed:
  • Bautista, Romeo M.
  • Robinson, Sherman
  • El-Said, Moataz

Abstract

In this article, we examine the economy-wide effects of three alternative growth paths for Indonesia's industrial sector using SAM (social accounting matrix) multiplier analysis and CGE (computable general equilibrium) modeling. The context of the analysis is the immediate post-crisis period — most likely to be in the next millennium — represented in our study by a modified benchmark data set for 1995. Special attention is given to the overall income and equity effects, considering that egalitarian growth has become a particularly important development objective in Indonesia. The results of SAM multiplier analysis indicate relatively strong macro-linkages from agricultural demand-led (ADL) industrialization, yielding a significantly larger increase in real GDP compared to that arising from industrial development oriented to either food processing or light manufacturing. The simulation results based on CGE modeling, which take account of nonlinearities and supply constraints that are ignored in SAM analysis, bear out the dominant influence of demand linkages in showing that ADL industrialization is associated with a larger GDP increase than the two industrial-led development paths.

Suggested Citation

  • Bautista, Romeo M. & Robinson, Sherman & El-Said, Moataz, 1999. "Alternative Industrial Development Paths for Indonesia: Sam and CGE Analyses," TMD Discussion Papers 97538, CGIAR, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iffp23:97538
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.97538
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/97538/files/tmdp42.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.97538?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romeo M. Bautista, 1997. "Income and equity effects of the green revolution in the Philippines: a macroeconomic perspective," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(2), pages 151-168.
    2. Adelman, Irma, 1984. "Beyond export-led growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 12(9), pages 937-949, September.
    3. Christopher Delgado & Peter Hazell & Jane Hopkins & Valerie Kelly, 1994. "Promoting Intersectoral Growth Linkages in Rural Africa Through Agricultural Technology and Policy Reform," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1166-1171.
    4. Adelman, Irma, 1984. "Beyond export-led growth," CUDARE Working Paper Series 309, University of California at Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Policy.
    5. Robinson, Sherman & Roland-Holst, David W., 1988. "Macroeconomic structure and computable general equilibrium models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 353-375.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bautista, Romeo M. & Thomas, Marcelle, 1998. "Agricultural Growth Linkages In Zimbabwe: Income And Equity Effects," TMD Discussion Papers 97549, CGIAR, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. El-Said, Moataz & Lofgren, Hans & Robinson, Sherman, 2001. "The Impact Of Alternative Development Strategies On Growth And Distribution: Simulations With A Dynamic Model For Egypt," TMD Discussion Papers 16311, CGIAR, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Romeo M. Bautista, 1997. "Income and equity effects of the green revolution in the Philippines: a macroeconomic perspective," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(2), pages 151-168.
    4. Belinga Thierry & Zhou Jun & Hu Guohui, 2017. "Government Expenditure on Rural Development and Economic Growth in Cameroon," International Journal of Innovation and Economic Development, Inovatus Services Ltd., vol. 3(1), pages 113-121, April.
    5. Alain de Janvry & Elisabeth Sadoulet, 2019. "Transforming developing country agriculture: Removing adoption constraints and promoting inclusive value chain development," Working Papers hal-02287668, HAL.
    6. van Seventer, D. E. N. & Faux, C. S. & van Zyl, J., 1992. "An Input-Output Analysis Of Agribusiness In South Africa," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 31(01), March.
    7. Arndt, Channing & Schiller, Rico & Tarp, Finn, 2001. "Grain transport and rural credit in Mozambique: solving the space-time problem," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 59-70, June.
    8. Hudson, Darren & Ethridge, Don E., 1998. "The Implications of an Export Tax on Sectoral Growth: A Case in Pakistan," Cotton Economics Research Institute CER Series 53164, Texas Tech University, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    9. Balisacan, Arsenio M. Author_Email:, 1993. "Agricultural Growth and Rural Performance: A Philippine Perspective," Philippine Journal of Development, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    10. Irma Adelman, 2017. "Confessioni di un'inguaribile romantica (Confessions of an incurable romantic)," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 70(279), pages 239-263.
    11. Gunawardena, Aruni, 2012. "Effects of Increasing Agricultural Productivity: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis for Sri Lanka," 2012 Conference (56th), February 7-10, 2012, Fremantle, Australia 124313, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    12. Derek Headey, 2008. "The Principal Components of Growth in the Less Developed Countries," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 568-598, November.
    13. Adelman, Irma & Berck, Peter, 1990. "Food security policy in a stochastic world," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 25-55, November.
    14. Antoci, Angelo & Borghesi, Simone & Iannucci, Gianluca & Ticci, Elisa, 2019. "Land use and pollution in a two-sector evolutionary model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 114-125.
    15. Taylor, J. Edward & Yunez-Naude, Antonio & Hampton, Steve, 1999. "Agricultural Policy Reforms and Village Economies: A Computable General-Equilibrium Analysis from Mexico," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 453-480, July.
    16. Chand, Ramesh & Raju, S.S. & Pandey, L.M. & Sonalika, Surabhi, 2009. "Linkages Between Urban Consumption and Rural Non-Farm Employment and Agricultural Income: A New Perspective," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 64(3), pages 1-12.
    17. Marie-Francoise Calmette & Maureen Kilkenny, 2012. "Rural roads versus African famines," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 49(2), pages 373-396, October.
    18. Diao, Xinshen & Dorosh, Paul A. & Rahman, Shaikh Mahfuzur, 2003. "Market opportunities for African agriculture: an examination of demand-side constraints on agricultural growth," DSGD discussion papers 1, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    19. Dethier, Jean-Jacques & Effenberger, Alexandra, 2012. "Agriculture and development: A brief review of the literature," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 175-205.
    20. Diao, Xinshen & Fekadu, Belay & Haggblade, Steven & Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum & Wamisho, Kassu & Yu, Bingxin, 2007. "Agricultural growth linkages in Ethiopia: Estimates using fixed and flexible price models," IFPRI discussion papers 695, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:iffp23:97538. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifprius.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.