IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/huiawp/305789.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

What does the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 imply for income distribution in the Sudan and Ethiopia

Author

Listed:
  • Artavia Oreamuno, Marco A.
  • Siddig, Khalid

Abstract

The OECD and FAO provide growth paths (projections over a period of 10 years) for the agricultural sectors of different countries in their joint OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook. This study assesses the implication of the projected agricultural growth paths for the Sudan and Ethiopia on the structures of the economies and the distribution of incomes among the different household groups in the two countries. First, single country, recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) models for the two countries were calibrated to the most recent social accounting matrices (SAMs) of the two countries. Second, a baseline scenario for each country was developed until 2026. These projections were based on GDP projections (value, growth rates and composition) developed by the IMF World Economic Outlook, the World Bank World Development Indicators and the national statistical offices in the two countries. Third, the growth paths of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook were implemented for the agricultural sectors of the two countries while preserving the aggregate GDP projections. Finally, results of the models under the OEDC-FAO growth paths are reported with a special focus on the distribution of income in the two countries. The main findings highlight that, in both countries, agricultural growth is significantly behind that of industry and services. Due to the slower growth, returns to factors of production (e.g. labor and capital) employed in agriculture are much lower than to those employed in the other economic sectors. Unless sensible interventions are made, poor agricultural households will be particularly worse-off within these two countries. Therefore, economic and agricultural policies in these two countries should pay more attention to agricultural sector growth (productivity) within their poverty reduction/eradication efforts.

Suggested Citation

  • Artavia Oreamuno, Marco A. & Siddig, Khalid, 2020. "What does the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 imply for income distribution in the Sudan and Ethiopia," Working Paper Series 305789, Humboldt University Berlin, Department of Agricultural Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:huiawp:305789
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.305789
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/305789/files/wp99.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.305789?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Siddig, Khalid & Elagra, Samir & Grethe, Harald & Mubarak, Amel, 2016. "A Post-Separation Social Accounting Matrix for the Sudan," Working Paper Series 244286, Humboldt University Berlin, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    2. AfDB AfDB, . "Annual Report 2012," Annual Report, African Development Bank, number 461.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. José Antonio Rodríguez Martín & Juan Dios Jiménez Aguilera & José Antonio Salinas Fernández & José María Martín Martín, 2016. "Millennium Development Goals 4 and 5: Progress in the Least Developed Countries of Asia," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 129(2), pages 489-504, November.
    2. Craig Garthwaite & Tal Gross & Matthew J. Notowidigdo, 2014. "Public Health Insurance, Labor Supply, and Employment Lock," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(2), pages 653-696.
    3. Tarek Roshdy Gebba & Mohamed Gamal Aboelmaged, 2016. "Corporate Governance of UAE Financial Institutions: A Comparative Study between Conventional and Islamic Banks," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 6(5), pages 1-7.
    4. Nelson, Ewan & Warren, Peter, 2020. "UK transport decoupling: On track for clean growth in transport?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 39-51.
    5. Antonio Bassanetti & Matteo Bugamelli & Sandro Momigliano & Roberto Sabbatini & Francesco Zollino, 2014. "The policy response to macroeconomic and fiscal imbalances in Italy in the last fifteen years," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 67(268), pages 55-103.
    6. Joseph I. Uduji & Elda N. Okolo-Obasi & Simplice A. Asongu, 2019. "Responsible use of crop protection products and Nigeria's growth enhancement support scheme," Development in Practice, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 448-463, May.
    7. Peter J. Rimmer, 2014. "Asian-Pacific Rim Logistics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12949.
    8. Clarete, Ramon L. & Villamil, Isabela Rosario G., 2015. "Readiness of the Philippine Agriculture and Fisheries Sectors for the 2015 ASEAN Economic Community: A Rapid Appraisal," Research Paper Series DP 2015-43, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    9. Li, Xi & Yu, Biying, 2019. "Peaking CO2 emissions for China's urban passenger transport sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    10. Alleyne, Dillon & Emanuel, Elizabeth & Phillips, Willard, 2013. "An assessment of fiscal and regulatory barriers to the deployment of energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies in Saint Lucia," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38502, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    11. Gang Chen, 2015. "From mercantile strategy to domestic demand stimulation: changes in China's solar PV subsidies," Asia Pacific Business Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 96-112, January.
    12. Cristian Pana, 2013. "The National Central Bank’S Management Of Reserve Requirements," Working papers 16, Ecological University of Bucharest, Department of Economics.
    13. Junlakarn, Siripha & Kittner, Noah & Tongsopit, Sopitsuda & Saelim, Supawan, 2021. "A cross-country comparison of compensation mechanisms for distributed photovoltaics in the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    14. McMahon, Rob, 2020. "Co-developing digital inclusion policy and programming with indigenous partners: Interventions from Canada," Internet Policy Review: Journal on Internet Regulation, Alexander von Humboldt Institute for Internet and Society (HIIG), Berlin, vol. 9(2), pages 1-26.
    15. Wang, Jianjun & Ortiz, Theresa & Navarro, Diana & Maier, Roland & Wang, Summer & Wang, Lisa & Wang, Libing, 2016. "An empirical study of early childhood support through partnership building," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 74-80.
    16. Berta Morata & Chiara Cavalieri & Agatino Rizzo & Andrea Luciani, 2020. "Territories of Extraction: Mapping Palimpsests of Appropriation," Urban Planning, Cogitatio Press, vol. 5(2), pages 132-151.
    17. Adoracion M. NAVARRO & Gilberto M. LLANTO, . "Philippines Country Report," Chapters, in: Fauziah ZEN & Michael REGAN (ed.), Financing ASEAN Connectivity, chapter 7, pages 269-330, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    18. John V. Duca, 2013. "Regionally, Housing Rebound Depends on Jobs, Local Supply Tightness," Annual Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    19. Fong Kean Yan & Yap Lya Keng & Kwek Kien Teng, 2016. "Empirical Analysis of House Price Bubble: A Case Study on Malaysia," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(12), pages 127-127, November.
    20. Divya Ravindranath, 2017. "Visa regulations and labour market restrictions: implications for Indian immigrant women in the United States," The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, Springer;The Indian Society of Labour Economics (ISLE), vol. 60(2), pages 217-232, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:huiawp:305789. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iahubde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.