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Market Incentives, Forest Management, and the Future of China's Forest Carbon Sink

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  • Zhang, Yifan
  • Tian, Xiaohui

Abstract

Existing projections of China’s forest carbon sink treat management as exogenous, ignoring how timber prices shape investment, species selection, and harvest timing. We develop a high-resolution China module within the Global Timber Model (GTM), a dynamic partial-equilibrium optimization framework calibrated to the Ninth National Forest Inventory across 234 land classes. Under the baseline, China’s forests sequester an average of 164 Tg C yr−1 between 2020 and 2060, stabilizing above 100 Tg C yr−1 through end-of-century. Commercial plantations, 24% of forest area, contribute over half the total sink by 2060. Holding management intensity fixed reduces the sink by 15% by 2060. Higher timber demand strengthens the sink through intensified management, while relaxing logging restrictions generates short-term carbon costs but long-term net gains.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Yifan & Tian, Xiaohui, 2026. "Market Incentives, Forest Management, and the Future of China's Forest Carbon Sink," 2026 Annual Meeting, July 26 - 28, 2026, Kansas City, Missouri 404739, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea26:404739
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.404739
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    References listed on IDEAS

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