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Climate Change, Agricultural Production, and International Trade

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  • Mo, Taejun

Abstract

We investigate how climate-induced changes in agricultural productivity will reshape global agricultural trade patterns, and how trade policy mediates these effects. We employ a structural gravity model combining econometric and counterfactual simulation-based analyses using spatially resolved data reflecting anticipated productivity impacts for six major crops. Our analysis yields three main findings: (1) climate change will significantly alter the geography of global agricultural production and trade, (2) trade offers a crucial mechanism through which the impacts of climate change can be mitigated, and (3) trade liberalization can further amplify the role of trade in buffering the economic effects of climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Mo, Taejun, 2026. "Climate Change, Agricultural Production, and International Trade," 2026 Annual Meeting, July 26 - 28, 2026, Kansas City, Missouri 404670, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea26:404670
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.404670
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Baier, Scott L. & Yotov, Yoto V. & Zylkin, Thomas, 2019. "On the widely differing effects of free trade agreements: Lessons from twenty years of trade integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 206-226.
    2. James E. Anderson & Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2018. "GEPPML: General equilibrium analysis with PPML," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(10), pages 2750-2782, October.
    3. Mario Larch & Serge Shikher & Yoto V. Yotov, 2025. "Estimating Gravity Equations: Theory Implications, Econometric Developments, and Practical Recommendations," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(5), pages 1066-1092, November.
    4. Ishan Nath, 2025. "Climate Change, the Food Problem, and the Challenge of Adaptation through Sectoral Reallocation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 133(6), pages 1705-1756.
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