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The Effects of Climate Changes on Brazilian Agricultural Production – A Multisector Growth Model Analysis

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  • Spolador, Humberto Francisco Silva
  • Smith, Rodney B.W.

Abstract

This paper develops a multisector growth model to examine the potential effects of climate change and Brazilian agriculture. In keeping with the current literature, the model assumes climate (here temperature and rainfall) affects agricultural output via its impact on total factor productivity (TFP). We begin by estimating an aggregate agricultural technology for Brazil, with econometric results suggesting a strong relationship exists between rainfall, temperature and agricultural TFP. We then introduce the climate effects into a dynamic multisector growth model of Brazil. Model results suggest climate change could have a negative impact on agriculture, but benefit manufacturing, with long run agricultural output per unit of labor being less than half of agricultural output per worker in a no climate change world.

Suggested Citation

  • Spolador, Humberto Francisco Silva & Smith, Rodney B.W., 2014. "The Effects of Climate Changes on Brazilian Agricultural Production – A Multisector Growth Model Analysis," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170294, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea14:170294
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.170294
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2012. "Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 66-95, July.
    2. Humberto F.S. Spolador & Terry L. Roe, 2013. "The Role of Agriculture on the Recent Brazilian Economic Growth: How Agriculture Competes for Resources," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 51(4), pages 333-359, December.
    3. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116.
    4. Vinyes, Cristina & Roe, Terry L., 2010. "Growth Diagnostics and a Multisector Ramsey Model: The Case of Brazil," Bulletins 56502, University of Minnesota, Economic Development Center.
    5. Trimborn, Timo & Koch, Karl-Josef & Steger, Thomas M., 2008. "Multidimensional Transitional Dynamics: A Simple Numerical Procedure," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 301-319, June.
    6. Cassiano Bragagnolo & Humberto F. S. Spolador & Geraldo Sant’Ana de Camargo Barros, 2010. "Regional Brazilian Agriculture TFP Analysis: A Stochastic Frontier Analysis Approach," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 11(4), pages 217-242.
    7. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 354-385, March.
    8. Jonathan Kaminski & Iddo Kan & Aliza Fleischer, 2013. "A Structural Land-Use Analysis of Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change: A Proactive Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(1), pages 70-93.
    9. Anthony C. Fisher & W. Michael Hanemann & Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2012. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3749-3760, December.
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    Keywords

    Environmental Economics and Policy; Productivity Analysis;

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