IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Assessing the Uncertainty of Land Based Carbon Sequestration: A Parameter Uncertainty Analysis with a Global Land Use Model

  • Kim, Yoon Hyung
  • Sohngen, Brent
Registered author(s):

    This paper analyzes the effect of uncertainty in several key parameters on the marginal costs of carbon sequestration in forests. These parameters include the land supply elasticity, which governs the conversion of land from agriculture to forests and vice versa; parameters of the forest biomass yield function; parameters of the forest carbon density function; and parameters of the costs functions for accessing inaccessible land. Monte Carlo techniques are thus used to turn the global forest model with no probability (e.g., Sohngen & Mendelsohn, 2003; 2007) into a proper probability model through Latin hypercube sampling. For this paper, we have restricted our analysis to consideration of probability distributions for only two of the parameters described above. Specifically, these are the parameters of the forest biomass yield function and the land supply elasticity. The importance index and the least square linearization are used to determine the relative contribution of input parameters to the model results. Five hundred model runs in one simulation were performed with covariability among the parameters. The Monte Carlo simulations indicated that most of the uncertainty in forest area in developed countries relates to uncertainty in parameters of the biomass function while in developing countries, where deforestation is more important (e.g., Brazil), the simulation showed the parameters of land supply elasticity to have the most important implications for carbon supply. These results are perhaps not too surprising but they do point to the need to empirically estimate land supply elasticities in regions like Brazil, where such estimates are not currently available in the literature. The results also provide information that can be used to estimate uncertainty intervals for carbon sequestration cost functions.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49416
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its series 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin with number 49416.

    as
    in new window

    Length:
    Date of creation: 2009
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea09:49416
    Contact details of provider: Postal: 555 East Wells Street, Suite 1100, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53202
    Phone: (414) 918-3190
    Fax: (414) 276-3349
    Web page: http://www.aaea.orgEmail:


    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Lubowski, Ruben & Plantinga, Andrew & Stavins, Robert, 2005. "Land-Use Change and Carbon Sinks: Econometric Estimation of the Carbon Sequestration Supply Function," Working Paper Series rwp05-001, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    2. Tavoni, Massimo & Sohngen, Brent & Bosetti, Valentina, 2007. "Forestry and the carbon market response to stabilize climate," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5346-5353, November.
    3. Brent Sohngen & Robert Mendelsohn, 2003. "An Optimal Control Model of Forest Carbon Sequestration," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(2), pages 448-457.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea09:49416. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.