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Futures Basis for Cotton: Impact of Globalization and Structural Change

  • MacDonald, Stephen
  • Meyer, Leslie A.

A model of commodity futures contract basis was developed based on Working’s theory of the price of storage. An error-correction model was estimated for the basis for the InterContinental Exchange (ICE) #2 cotton contract maturing in December during 2000-08. The model was also extended to incorporate the impact of changes in market activity that evolved as financial markets and commodity price behavior underwent significant changes after 2005. The model captured the inversion of basis following the collapse of China’s crop in 2003, but the shock realized during 2008 may have been in part driven by one-time events not included in the model. Estimates from the error-correction model suggest an extended period for the return of basis to equilibrium, spanning from about 1 ½ to 2 months.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49269
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Paper provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its series 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin with number 49269.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea09:49269
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  1. Irwin, Scott H. & Garcia, Philip & Good, Darrel L., 2007. "The Performance of Chicago Board of Trade Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Futures Contracts after Recent Changes in Speculative Limits," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 9951, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  2. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  3. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
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