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The Performance of Chicago Board of Trade Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Futures Contracts after Recent Changes in Speculative Limits

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  • Irwin, Scott H.
  • Garcia, Philip
  • Good, Darrel L.

Abstract

Three attributes of futures contract behavior important for market performance liquidity, volatility, and convergence are investigated before and after the 2005 increase in speculative position limits for corn, soybean, and wheat contracts at the Chicago Board of Trade. The analysis of liquidity and market depth reveals a sharp increase in open interest for corn, soybeans and wheat beginning in late 2005. The increase in position limits likely accommodated the increase in speculative interest in corn, soybean and wheat futures, but some of the increase would have occurred without the increase as new market participants received hedge exemptions. The analysis of price volatility revealed no large change in measures of volatility after the change in speculative limits. For corn and soybeans, the picture that unfolds relative to convergence patterns is one of weakness, but not failure. For wheat, the picture that unfolds relative to convergence patterns is not only one of weakness, but failure to accomplish one of the fundamental tasks of a futures market. The persistence and growing magnitude of the delivery location basis in wheat suggests a problem with the contract specifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Irwin, Scott H. & Garcia, Philip & Good, Darrel L., 2007. "The Performance of Chicago Board of Trade Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Futures Contracts after Recent Changes in Speculative Limits," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon 9951, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea07:9951
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.9951
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    Cited by:

    1. Wei-Ming Tian & Zhang-Yue Zhou, 2011. "Fluctuations of Prices in the World Grain Market: Policy Responses by the Chinese Government," Chapters, in: Lilai Xu (ed.), China’s Economy in the Post-WTO Environment, chapter 8, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Derek Headey & Shenggen Fan, 2008. "Anatomy of a crisis: the causes and consequences of surging food prices," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 375-391, November.
    3. MacDonald, Stephen & Meyer, Leslie A., 2009. "Futures Basis for Cotton: Impact of Globalization and Structural Change," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49269, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Armah, Paul W. & Shanmugam, Velmurugan P., 2013. "Price Hikes in US Agricultural Commodity Futures Markets: An Empirical Efficiency Test," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 44(1), pages 1-9, March.
    5. MacDonald, Stephen & Meyer, Leslie, 2009. "Trends in U.S. Cotton Basis Since 2001," MPRA Paper 70909, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    Keywords

    Marketing;

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