IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/adb/adbwps/433.html

Working Paper 157 - How are the US Financial Shocks Transmitted into South Africa? Structural VAR evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Mthuli Ncube

  • Eliphas Ndou
  • Nombulelo Gumata

Abstract

We investigate the impact of unanticipated United States (US) bond yield increases, federal funds rate tightening, and monetary stimulus shocks on the South African economy using structural VAR models. Firstly, the US monetary stimulus shock leads to weak consumer price inflation, rand-dollar appreciation, real stock price revaluation, bond yield declines, decline in monetary aggregates and real interest rates in South Africa. Despite the weak trade channel evidence, other findings are consistent with predictions of a small open economy Mundell-Fleming model. Secondly, an unanticipated positive US medium-term bond yield shock leads to rand-dollar depreciation and rising bond yields as predicted by the portfolio balance exchange rate model. This same shock leads to significant real stock price declines, which is consistent with portfolio re-allocation driven by change in US bonds yields. Thirdly, we find that unanticipated US federal funds rate tightening leads to significant increases in South African bond yields, rand-dollar depreciation and delayed consumer price inflation

Suggested Citation

  • Mthuli Ncube & Eliphas Ndou & Nombulelo Gumata, 2012. "Working Paper 157 - How are the US Financial Shocks Transmitted into South Africa? Structural VAR evidence," Working Paper Series 433, African Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:adb:adbwps:433
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a
    for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Debalke, Negash Mulatu, 2023. "Investigating Volatility Transmissions among Sovereign Bonds in African and Emerging Markets Using Multivariate GARCH Models," MPRA Paper 118447, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Johnson Worlanyo Ahiadorme, 2022. "On the aggregate effects of global uncertainty: Evidence from an emerging economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 90(3), pages 390-407, September.
    3. Rex A McKenzie, 2015. "Monetary transmission in Africa: a review of official sources," Economics Discussion Papers 2015-7, School of Economics, Kingston University London.
    4. Kronick, Jeremy, 2014. "Monetary Policy Shocks from the EU and US: Implications for Sub-Saharan Africa," MPRA Paper 59416, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Zorobabel Bicaba & Zuzana Brixiov?? & Mthuli Ncube, 2014. "Capital Account Policies, Imf Programs And Growth In Developing Regions," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1085, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    6. Thanda Sithole & Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Modeste Some, 2017. "The role of financial conditions in transmitting external shocks to South Africa," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 150, pages 36-56.
    7. Zorobabel Bicaba & Zuzana Brixiova & Mthuli Ncube, 2015. "Working Paper - 217 - Capital Account Policies, IMF Programs and Growth in Developing Regions," Working Paper Series 2155, African Development Bank.
    8. Yoshiyuki Fukuda & Yuki Kimura & Nao Sudo & Hiroshi Ugai, 2013. "Cross-country Transmission Effect of the U.S. Monetary Shock under Global Integration," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 13-E-16, Bank of Japan.
    9. Angela Ifeanyi Ukemenam & Babatunde Opadeji & Tuwe Soro Garbobiya & Augustine Ujunwa, 2018. "Macroeconomic Effects of Exogenous Oil Price Shock in Nigeria: Persistent or Transitory," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(11), pages 1-28, November.
    10. Debalke, Negash Mulatu, 2023. "Examining volatility and spillover effects between markets for sovereign bonds of African countries and the world’s long term interest rate," MPRA Paper 117491, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:adb:adbwps:433. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Adeleke Oluwole Salami (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/afdbgci.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.