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Working Paper 157 - How are the US Financial Shocks Transmitted into South Africa? Structural VAR evidence

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  • Mthuli Ncube

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  • Eliphas Ndou
  • Nombulelo Gumata

Abstract

We investigate the impact of unanticipated United States (US) bond yield increases, federal funds rate tightening, and monetary stimulus shocks on the South African economy using structural VAR models. Firstly, the US monetary stimulus shock leads to weak consumer price inflation, rand-dollar appreciation, real stock price revaluation, bond yield declines, decline in monetary aggregates and real interest rates in South Africa. Despite the weak trade channel evidence, other findings are consistent with predictions of a small open economy Mundell-Fleming model. Secondly, an unanticipated positive US medium-term bond yield shock leads to rand-dollar depreciation and rising bond yields as predicted by the portfolio balance exchange rate model. This same shock leads to significant real stock price declines, which is consistent with portfolio re-allocation driven by change in US bonds yields. Thirdly, we find that unanticipated US federal funds rate tightening leads to significant increases in South African bond yields, rand-dollar depreciation and delayed consumer price inflation

Suggested Citation

  • Mthuli Ncube & Eliphas Ndou & Nombulelo Gumata, 2012. "Working Paper 157 - How are the US Financial Shocks Transmitted into South Africa? Structural VAR evidence," Working Paper Series 433, African Development Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:adb:adbwps:433
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, June.
    2. James M. Poterba, 2000. "Stock Market Wealth and Consumption," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 99-118, Spring.
    3. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-472, June.
    4. Kwark, Noh-Sun, 1999. "Sources of international business fluctuations: Country-specific shocks or worldwide shocks?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 367-385, August.
    5. Park, Kwangwoo & Ratti, Ronald A, 2000. "Real Activity, Inflation, Stock Returns, and Monetary Policy," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 59-77, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zorobabel Bicaba & Zuzana Brixiov?? & Mthuli Ncube, 2014. "Capital Account Policies, Imf Programs And Growth In Developing Regions," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1085, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    2. McKenzie, Rex A, 2015. "Monetary transmission in Africa: a review of official sources," Economics Discussion Papers 2015-7, School of Economics, Kingston University London.
    3. Zorobabel Bicaba & Zuzana Brixiova & Mthuli Ncube, 2015. "Working Paper - 217 - Capital Account Policies, IMF Programs and Growth in Developing Regions," Working Paper Series 2155, African Development Bank.

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