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Real Activity, Inflation, Stock Returns, and Monetary Policy

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Listed:
  • Park, Kwangwoo
  • Ratti, Ronald A

Abstract

We find that contractionary monetary policy shocks generate statistically significant movements in inflation and expected real stock returns, and that these movements go in opposite directions. Since positive shocks to output precipitate monetary tightening, we argue that the countercyclical monetary policy process is important in explaining the negative correlation between inflation and stock returns. Examining the 1979-82 period, we find that monetary policy tightens significantly in response to positive shocks to inflation, and that the impact of monetary policy shocks on stock returns is negative and volatile. Therefore, we see evidence that an "anticipated policy" hypothesis is at work. Copyright 2000 by MIT Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Park, Kwangwoo & Ratti, Ronald A, 2000. "Real Activity, Inflation, Stock Returns, and Monetary Policy," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 59-77, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:finrev:v:35:y:2000:i:2:p:59-77
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    1. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-108 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Ewing, Bradley T., 2001. "Cross-Effects of Fundamental State Variables," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 633-645, October.
    3. repec:kap:atlecj:v:45:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s11293-017-9543-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Alexandros Kontonikas & Alexandros Kostakis, 2013. "On Monetary Policy and Stock Market Anomalies," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(7-8), pages 1009-1042, September.
    5. Li, Yun Daisy & Iscan, Talan B. & Xu, Kuan, 2010. "The impact of monetary policy shocks on stock prices: Evidence from Canada and the United States," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 876-896, September.
    6. Helmut Lütkepohl & Aleksei Netsunajev, 2014. "Structural Vector Autoregressions with Smooth Transition in Variances: The Interaction between U.S. Monetary Policy and the Stock Market," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1388, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    7. Juan A. Montecino & Gerald Epstein, 2014. "Intra-Financial Lending, Credit, and Capital Formation," Working Papers Series 21, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    8. repec:taf:applec:v:49:y:2017:i:18:p:1794-1807 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Bharat Kolluri & Mahmoud Wahab, 2008. "Stock returns and expected inflation: evidence from an asymmetric test specification," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 371-395, May.
    10. Ali Umar Ahmad & Adam Abdullah & Zunaidah Sulong & Ahmad Tijjani Abdullahi, 2015. "The Review of Stock Returns and Macroeconomic Variables," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 5(5), pages 154-181, May.
    11. repec:eee:dyncon:v:84:y:2017:i:c:p:43-57 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:4:p:909-:d:137401 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Laopodis, Nikiforos T., 2013. "Monetary policy and stock market dynamics across monetary regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 381-406.
    14. Ewing Bradley T & Hoffman James J. & Thompson Mark A., 2008. "Macroeconomic Activity and the Compensation of Health Care Workers," Journal of Business Valuation and Economic Loss Analysis, De Gruyter, vol. 2(2), pages 1-14, January.
    15. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Christian Aubin & Daniel Goyeau, 2017. "Stock prices, inflation and inflation uncertainty in the U.S.: testing the long-run relationship considering Dow Jones sector indexes," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(18), pages 1794-1807, April.
    16. Claudiu Albulescu & Christian Aubin & Daniel Goyeau, 2016. "Stock prices, inflation and inflation uncertainty in the U.S.: Testing the long-run relationship considering Dow Jones sector indexes," Papers 1603.01231, arXiv.org.
    17. Mthuli Ncube & Eliphas Ndou & Nombulelo Gumata, 2012. "Working Paper 157 - How are the US Financial Shocks Transmitted into South Africa? Structural VAR evidence," Working Paper Series 433, African Development Bank.
    18. Guneratne Wickremasinghe, 2011. "The Sri Lankan stock market and the macroeconomy: an empirical investigation," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 179-195, August.
    19. Ewing, Bradley T., 2003. "The response of the default risk premium to macroeconomic shocks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 261-272.
    20. Mansor H. Ibrahim and Wan Sulaiman Wan Yusoff, 2001. "Macroeconomic Variables, Exchange Rate And Stock Price: A Malaysian Perspective," IIUM Journal of Economics and Management, IIUM Journal of Economis and Management, vol. 9(2), pages 141-164, December.
    21. Ewing, Bradley T. & Payne, James E., 2005. "The response of real estate investment trust returns to macroeconomic shocks," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 293-300, March.
    22. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Dar, Arif Billah & Bhanja, Niyati & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2015. "Stock returns and inflation in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 23-31.
    23. Bradley Ewing & Phanindra Wunnava, 2002. "Union-Nonunion Wage Differentials and Macroeconomic Activity," Middlebury College Working Paper Series 0231, Middlebury College, Department of Economics.

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