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The Impact of Macroeconomic Conditions on Property Crime

Author

Listed:
  • John M. Nunley
  • Richard Alan Seals Jr.
  • Joachim Zietz

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of inflation, (un)employment, and stock market growth on the rates of larceny, burglary, motor vehicle theft, and robbery. The study uses U.S. data for the time period 1948 to 2009. We employ an unobserved component approach to circumvent the problems associated with omitted variables. We find that the three macroeconomic variables have a statistically significant impact for most of the property crime rates. However, taken together the macroeconomic variables explain no more than 15 percent of the surge in property crimes from the 1960 to the 1980s and their subsequent fall during the 1990s. Among the macroeconomic variables, almost all of the explanatory power is provided by changes in the inflation rate.

Suggested Citation

  • John M. Nunley & Richard Alan Seals Jr. & Joachim Zietz, 2011. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Conditions on Property Crime," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2011-06, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    • Handle: RePEc:abn:wpaper:auwp2011-06
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    File URL: https://cla.auburn.edu/econwp/Archives/2011/2011-06.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178.
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    8. Nunley, John M. & Seals, Richard Alan & Zietz, Joachim, 2011. "Demographic change, macroeconomic conditions, and the murder rate: The case of the United States, 1934–2006," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 942-948.
    9. Corman, Hope & Joyce, Theodore & Lovitch, Norman, 1987. "Crime, Deterrence and the Business Cycle in New York City: A VAR Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(4), pages 695-700, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vujić Sunčica & Koopman Siem Jan & Commandeur J.F., 2012. "Economic Trends and Cycles in Crime: A Study for England and Wales," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 232(6), pages 652-677, December.
    2. Abdul Saboor & Shumaila Sadiq & Atta Ullah Khan & Gulnaz Hameed, 2017. "Dynamic Reflections of Crimes, Quasi Democracy and Misery Index in Pakistan," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 133(1), pages 31-45, August.
    3. Vujić, Sunčica & Commandeur, Jacques J.F. & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2016. "Intervention time series analysis of crime rates: The case of sentence reform in Virginia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 311-323.
    4. Qamar, Alina & Safdar, Maria, 2021. "The Role of Human Capital, Corruption and Quality of Life in Determining the Crime Rate: Empirics from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 107633, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Murder Rate; Demographic Change; Age Composition; Crime; Misery Index;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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