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Flight to Safety from European Stock Markets

Author

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  • Nektarios Aslanidis

    () (Universitat Rovira i Virgili, CREIP)

  • Charlotte Christiansen

    () (CREATES, Aarhus University)

Abstract

This paper investigates flight-to-safety from stocks to bonds in seven European markets. We use quantile regressions to identify flight-to-safety episodes. The simple risk-return trade-off on the stock markets is negative which is caused by flight-to-safety episodes: During normal periods, the risk-return trade-off is positive and during flight-to-safety episodes it is negative. The effects of flight-to-safety episodes on the risk-return trade-off are qualitatively similar for own country flight-to-safety episodes, for flight from own country stock market to the US bond market, and for US flight-to-safety. The strength of the trade-off is strongest for own country flight-to-safety episodes. The risk-return trade-off is not significantly influenced by recession periods or the recent sovereign debt crisis. The main results hold for flight to gold instead of to bonds.

Suggested Citation

  • Nektarios Aslanidis & Charlotte Christiansen, 0711. "Flight to Safety from European Stock Markets," CREATES Research Papers 2017-38, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  • Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2017-38
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Viceira, Luis M., 2012. "Bond risk, bond return volatility, and the term structure of interest rates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 97-117.
    2. Vayanos, Dimitri, 2004. "Flight to quality, flight to liquidity, and the pricing of risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 456, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Christiansen, Charlotte, 2014. "Quantiles of the realized stock–bond correlation and links to the macroeconomy," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 321-331.
    4. Ehrmann, Michael & Osbat, Chiara & Stráský, Jan & Uusküla, Lenno, 2014. "The euro exchange rate during the European sovereign debt crisis – Dancing to its own tune?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PB), pages 319-339.
    5. Ciner, Cetin & Gurdgiev, Constantin & Lucey, Brian M., 2013. "Hedges and safe havens: An examination of stocks, bonds, gold, oil and exchange rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 202-211.
    6. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    7. Baur, Dirk G. & Lucey, Brian M., 2009. "Flights and contagion--An empirical analysis of stock-bond correlations," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 339-352, December.
    8. Michael Ehrmann & Chiara Osbat & Jan Strasky & Lenno Uuskula, 2013. "The Euro exchange rate during the European sovereign debt crisis � dancing to its own tune?," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2013-3, Bank of Estonia, revised 24 May 2013.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ?flight-to-safety; risk-return trade-off; European markets; stock market; bond market; gold futures;

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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