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Exponential GARCH Modeling with Realized Measures of Volatility

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  • Peter Reinhard Hansen

    () (European University Institute and CREATES)

  • Zhuo Huang

    () (Peking University, National School of Development, China Center for Economic Research)

Abstract

We introduce the Realized Exponential GARCH model that can utilize multiple realized volatility measures for the modeling of a return series. The model specifies the dynamic properties of both returns and realized measures, and is characterized by a flexible modeling of the dependence between returns and volatility. We apply the model to DJIA stocks and an exchange traded fund that tracks the S&P 500 index and find that specifications with multiple realized measures dominate those that rely on a single realized measure. The empirical analysis suggests some convenient simplifications and highlights the advantages of the new specification.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Reinhard Hansen & Zhuo Huang, 2012. "Exponential GARCH Modeling with Realized Measures of Volatility," CREATES Research Papers 2012-44, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  • Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2012-44
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Asai, M. & McAleer, M.J., 2018. "Bayesian Analysis of Realized Matrix-Exponential GARCH Models," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2018-07, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    2. Richard Gerlach & Chao Wang, 2016. "Bayesian Semi-parametric Realized-CARE Models for Tail Risk Forecasting Incorporating Realized Measures," Papers 1612.08488, arXiv.org.
    3. Manabu Asai & Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer, 2016. "Realized Matrix-Exponential Stochastic Volatility with Asymmetry, Long Memory and Spillovers," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2016-15, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    4. Harry-Paul Vander Elst, 2015. "FloGARCH: Realizing Long Memory and Asymmetries in Returns Valitility," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2015-12, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    5. Takahashi, Makoto & Watanabe, Toshiaki & Omori, Yasuhiro, 2016. "Volatility and quantile forecasts by realized stochastic volatility models with generalized hyperbolic distribution," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 437-457.
    6. Barunik, Jozef & Krehlik, Tomas & Vacha, Lukas, 2016. "Modeling and forecasting exchange rate volatility in time-frequency domain," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 251(1), pages 329-340.
    7. Asai, M. & McAleer, M.J. & Peiris, S., 2017. "Realized Stochastic Volatility Models with Generalized Gegenbauer Long Memory," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2017-29, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    8. Peter R. Hansen & Asger Lunde & Valeri Voev, 2010. "Realized Beta GARCH: A Multivariate GARCH Model with Realized Measures of Volatility and CoVolatility," CREATES Research Papers 2010-74, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    9. Asai, Manabu & Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael, 2017. "Realized stochastic volatility with general asymmetry and long memory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 199(2), pages 202-212.
    10. Gerlach, Richard & Naimoli, Antonio & Storti, Giuseppe, 2018. "Time Varying Heteroskedastic Realized GARCH models for tracking measurement error bias in volatility forecasting," MPRA Paper 83893, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Asger Lunde & Kasper V. Olesen, 2014. "Modeling and Forecasting the Distribution of Energy Forward Returns - Evidence from the Nordic Power Exchange," CREATES Research Papers 2013-19, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    12. Peter Reinhard Hansen & Pawel Janus & Siem Jan Koopman, 2016. "Realized Wishart-GARCH: A Score-driven Multi-Asset Volatility Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-061/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    13. Yves Dominicy & Harry-Paul Vander Elst, 2015. "Macro-Driven VaR Forecasts: From Very High to Very Low Frequency Data," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2015-41, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    14. Frömmel, Michael & Han, Xing & Kratochvil, Stepan, 2014. "Modeling the daily electricity price volatility with realized measures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 492-502.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    EGARCH; High Frequency Data; Realized Variance; Leverage Effect.;

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C80 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - General

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