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A Comprehensive Method for House Price Sustainability Assessment

In: CNB Financial Stability Report 2014/2015

Author

Listed:
  • Michal Hlavacek
  • Hana Hejlova

Abstract

This article describes the house price equilibrium assessment process used by the CNB in its decision-making on macroprudential measures intended to mitigate risks associated with loan financing of residential property purchases. It first explains why it is necessary to use multiple models simultaneously to correctly assess house price sustainability. It goes on to describe the approaches the CNB currently applies to estimate house price misalignment and discusses their results. It then presents a method for aggregating the estimates produced by those approaches and provides an aggregate assessment of the results. This method indicates that Czech house prices were roughly at their equilibrium level in mid-2014 following an extended period of slight undervaluation since the third quarter of 2009.

Suggested Citation

  • Michal Hlavacek & Hana Hejlova, 2015. "A Comprehensive Method for House Price Sustainability Assessment," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes,in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2014/2015, chapter 0, pages 121-130 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:cnb:ocpubc:fsr1415/2
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Claudio Borio & Patrick McGuire, 2004. "Twin peaks in equity and housing prices?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    2. European Commission, 2015. "Taxation trends in the European Union: 2015 edition," Taxation trends 2015, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    3. European Commission, 2011. "Taxation trends in the European Union: 2011 edition," Taxation trends 2011, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
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