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Rethinking Housing Bubbles

Author

Listed:
  • Gjerstad,Steven D.
  • Smith,Vernon L.

Abstract

In this highly original piece of work, Steven D. Gjerstad and Nobel Laureate Vernon L. Smith analyze the role of housing and its associated mortgage financing as a key element of economic cycles. The authors combine data from both laboratory and real markets to provide insight into the bubble propensity of real-world economic actors and use novel historical analysis on the Great Recession, the Great Depression, and all of the post-World War II recessions to establish the critical roles of housing, private-capital investment, and household and private institutional balance sheets in economic cycles. They develop a model that incorporates household balance sheets and bank balance sheets and offers insights based on this analysis concerning policy going forward, effectively changing the way economists think about economic cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Gjerstad,Steven D. & Smith,Vernon L., 2014. "Rethinking Housing Bubbles," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521198097, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:cbooks:9780521198097
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Levan Efremidze & John Rutledge & Thomas D. Willett, 2016. "Capital Flow Surges As Bubbles: Behavioral Finance And Mckinnon’S Over-Borrowing Syndrome Extended," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(02), pages 1-27, June.
    2. Bolt, Wilko & Demertzis, Maria & Diks, Cees & Hommes, Cars & Leij, Marco van der, 2019. "Identifying booms and busts in house prices under heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 234-259.
    3. Robert M. Dunsky & James R. Follain & Seth H. Giertz, 2021. "Pricing Credit Risk for Mortgages: Credit Risk Spreads and Heterogeneity across Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(3), pages 997-1032, September.
    4. Bao, Te & Hommes, Cars, 2019. "When speculators meet suppliers: Positive versus negative feedback in experimental housing markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    5. Levy, Daniel & Mayer, Tamir & Raviv, Alon, 2022. "Economists in the 2008 financial crisis: Slow to see, fast to act," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    6. Quinn, William & Turner, John D., 2020. "Bubbles in history," QUCEH Working Paper Series 2020-07, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
    7. Daisy J. Huang & Charles Ka Yui Leung & Chung-Yi Tse, 2018. "What Accounts for the Differences in Rent-Price Ratio and Turnover Rate? A Search-and-Matching Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 431-475, October.
    8. William Quinn & John D. Turner, 2023. "Bubbles in history," Business History, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 65(4), pages 636-655, May.
    9. Frank Veneroso, 2018. "The Economics of Instability: An Abstract of an Excerpt," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_903, Levy Economics Institute.
    10. Moroni, Stefano & Antoniucci, Valentina & Bisello, Adriano, 2016. "Energy sprawl, land taking and distributed generation: towards a multi-layered density," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 266-273.
    11. Nicolás Cachanosky & Alexander W. Salter, 2017. "The view from Vienna: An analysis of the renewed interest in the Mises-Hayek theory of the business cycle," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 30(2), pages 169-192, June.
    12. Vernon Smith, 2015. "Discovery processes, science, and ‘knowledge–how:’ Competition as a discovery procedure in the laboratory," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 28(3), pages 237-245, September.
    13. Ferlito, Carmelo, 2019. "The Property Market, Affordability and the Malaysian National Housing Policy," EconStor Preprints 197287, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    14. Katerina Sherstyuk & Krit Phankitnirundorn & Michael J. Roberts, 2021. "Randomized double auctions: gains from trade, trader roles, and price discovery," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 24(4), pages 1325-1364, December.
    15. Alqaralleh, Huthaifa & Canepa, Alessandra, 2020. "Housing market cycles in large urban areas," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 257-267.
    16. Sabiou M. Inoua, 2020. "News-Driven Expectations and Volatility Clustering," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, January.
    17. Coppock, Lee A. & Harper, Daniel Q. & Holt, Charles A., 2021. "Capital constraints and asset bubbles: An experimental study," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 75-88.
    18. Vernon L. Smith, 2020. "Causal versus Consequential Motives in Mental Models of Agent Social and Economic Action: Experiments, and the Neoclassical Diversion in Economics," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 341-370, August.
    19. Fishback, Price & Fleitas, Sebastian & Rose, Jonathan & Snowden, Ken, 2020. "Collateral Damage: The Impact of Foreclosures on New Home Mortgage Lending in the 1930s," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 80(3), pages 853-885, September.
    20. Karol Jan Borowiecki & Michał Dzieliński & Alexander Tepper, 2023. "The great margin call: The role of leverage in the 1929 Wall Street crash," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(3), pages 807-826, August.
    21. Gurbachan Singh, 2016. "Land Price, Bubbles and Permit Raj," Review of Market Integration, India Development Foundation, vol. 8(1-2), pages 1-33, April.
    22. Ferlito, Carmelo, 2018. "The Malaysian Property Boom and Bust Cycle: History Repeating?," EconStor Conference Papers 190772, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    23. Vogel, Harold L. & Werner, Richard A., 2015. "An analytical review of volatility metrics for bubbles and crashes," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 15-28.

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