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Mozambican Tomato Markets: Structural Breaks and Their Impact on Price Transmission and Integration

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  • Bazo, Amir Ernesto
  • Tonin, Julyerme Matheus
  • Alves, Alexandre Florindo

Abstract

This study analyzed the influence of structural breaks on the integration and transmission of tomato prices in the Maputo, Moamba, and Chókwè markets in southern Mozambique (2015-2019), using ANOVA, Tukey-HSD, ADF, DF-GLS, Franses-Haldrup for outliers, and Gregory-Hansen tests for cointegration with structural breaks. The results showed significant differences in average prices, as well as a strong interaction between the Chókwè, Moamba, and Maputo markets. The cointegration of the tomato price series across the analyzed markets and the identification of a break in February 2019 indicate a structural change in tomato prices in Chókwè and Moamba, highlighting their significant influence on price stability in Maputo. The ARDL-ECM (1,0,2,0,0,0) and ARDL-ECM (1,0,2) models suggest that long-term fluctuations in tomato prices in Maputo result from exogenous shocks from Chókwè and Moamba. Therefore, it is necessary to improve early-warning systems for extreme weather events and information sharing, as well as reduce barriers that inhibit efficient price transmission between markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Bazo, Amir Ernesto & Tonin, Julyerme Matheus & Alves, Alexandre Florindo, 2026. "Mozambican Tomato Markets: Structural Breaks and Their Impact on Price Transmission and Integration," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, issue 74, pages 57-72.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:342851
    DOI: 10.59072/rper.vi74.757
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