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Mapping cropland abandonment in the Aral Sea Basin with MODIS time series

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  • Löw, Fabian
  • Prishchepov, Alexander V.
  • Waldner, François
  • Dubovyk, Olena
  • Akramkhanov, Akmal
  • Biradar, Chandrashekhar
  • Lamers, John P.

Abstract

Cropland abandonment is globally widespread and has strong repercussions for regional food security and the environment. Statistics suggest that one of the hotspots of abandoned cropland is located in the drylands of the Aral Sea Basin (ASB), which covers parts of post-Soviet Central Asia, Afghanistan and Iran. To date, the exact spatial and temporal extents of abandoned cropland remain unclear, which hampers land-use planning. Abandoned land is a potentially valuable resource for alternative land uses. Here, we mapped the abandoned cropland in the drylands of the ASB with a time series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) from 2003–2016. To overcome the restricted ability of a single classifier to accurately map land-use classes across large areas and agro-environmental gradients, “stratum-specific” classifiers were calibrated and classification results were fused based on a locally weighted decision fusion approach. Next, the agro-ecological suitability of abandoned cropland areas was evaluated. The stratum-specific classification approach yielded an overall accuracy of 0.879, which was significantly more accurate ( p

Suggested Citation

  • Löw, Fabian & Prishchepov, Alexander V. & Waldner, François & Dubovyk, Olena & Akramkhanov, Akmal & Biradar, Chandrashekhar & Lamers, John P., 2018. "Mapping cropland abandonment in the Aral Sea Basin with MODIS time series," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 10(2), pages 1-24.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:182014
    DOI: 10.3390/rs10020159
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    1. Alexander V. Prishchepov & Florian Schierhorn & Fabian Löw, 2021. "Unraveling the Diversity of Trajectories and Drivers of Global Agricultural Land Abandonment," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-8, January.
    2. Wei Song, 2019. "Mapping Cropland Abandonment in Mountainous Areas Using an Annual Land-Use Trajectory Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-24, October.
    3. Zhukov, Yuri M., 2023. "Near-real time analysis of war and economic activity during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 1232-1243.
    4. Buting Hong & Jicheng Wang & Jiangtao Xiao & Quanzhi Yuan & Ping Ren, 2025. "Spatiotemporal Patterns and Determinants of Cropland Abandonment in Mountainous Regions of China: A Case Study of Sichuan Province," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-25, March.
    5. Haoran Wang & Zecheng Guo & Yaowen Xie & Xueyuan Zhang & Guilin Xi & Hongxin Huang, 2023. "Is Abandoned Cropland Continuously Growing in China? Quantitative Evidence and Enlightenment from Landsat-Derived Annual China Land Cover Dataset," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-19, December.
    6. Han Li & Wei Song, 2021. "Cropland Abandonment and Influencing Factors in Chongqing, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-21, November.
    7. Kanat Samarkhanov & Jilili Abuduwaili & Alim Samat & Gulnura Issanova, 2019. "The Spatial and Temporal Land Cover Patterns of the Qazaly Irrigation Zone in 2003–2018: The Case of Syrdarya River’s Lower Reaches, Kazakhstan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-20, July.
    8. Guandong Su & Hidenori Okahashi & Lin Chen, 2018. "Spatial Pattern of Farmland Abandonment in Japan: Identification and Determinants," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-22, October.
    9. Manuela Hirschmugl & Carina Sobe & Cosette Khawaja & Rainer Janssen & Lorenzo Traverso, 2021. "Pan-European Mapping of Underutilized Land for Bioenergy Production," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-20, January.
    10. Mannan Karim & Jiqiu Deng & Muhammad Ayoub & Wuzhou Dong & Baoyi Zhang & Muhammad Shahzad Yousaf & Yasir Ali Bhutto & Muhammad Ishfaque, 2023. "Improved Cropland Abandonment Detection with Deep Learning Vision Transformer (DL-ViT) and Multiple Vegetation Indices," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-24, October.
    11. Yuchen Guo & Wei Song, 2019. "Spatial Distribution and Simulation of Cropland Abandonment in Wushan County, Chongqing, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-25, March.
    12. Vera, Ivan & Wicke, Birka & Lamers, Patrick & Cowie, Annette & Repo, Anna & Heukels, Bas & Zumpf, Colleen & Styles, David & Parish, Esther & Cherubini, Francesco & Berndes, Göran & Jager, Henriette & , 2022. "Land use for bioenergy: Synergies and trade-offs between sustainable development goals," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    13. Song, Wei & Yang, Dazhi & Wang, Yanwei, 2024. "Integrating an abandoned farmland simulation model (AFSM) using system dynamics and CLUE-S for sustainable agriculture," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).

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