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Explaining Episodes of Growth Accelerations, Decelerations, and Collapses in Western Africa

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  • Patrick Imam

    (International Monetary Fund, USA)

  • Gonzalo Salinas

    (International Monetary Fund, USA)

Abstract

The growth literature has had problems explaining the "sub-Saharan African growth dummy" in cross-country regressions. Instead of taking the usual approach of focusing on long-run growth and assuming that sub-Saharan countries have homogenous parameters in growth regressions, we concentrate our analysis on episodes of growth turnarounds (identifying growth accelerations, decelerations, and collapses) and use only West African countries in our sample. Using probits for a group of 22 Western African economies for the period 1960–2006, we find that growth accelerations are most clearly associated with external shocks, economic liberalization, political stability, and closeness to the coast; decelerations occurred during short-lived regimes and when corruption indices weakened; and collapses are linked to external shocks, falling domestic credit, and proximity to the coast.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Imam & Gonzalo Salinas, 2015. "Explaining Episodes of Growth Accelerations, Decelerations, and Collapses in Western Africa," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(01), pages 1-33.
  • Handle: RePEc:wsi:jicepx:v:06:y:2015:i:01:n:s1793993315500039
    DOI: 10.1142/S1793993315500039
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    1. Connel Fullenkamp & Mr. Thomas F. Cosimano & Michael T. Gapen & Mr. Ralph Chami & Mr. Peter J Montiel & Mr. Adolfo Barajas, 2008. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Remittances," IMF Occasional Papers 2008/001, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Michael A. Clemens & Steven Radelet & Rikhil Bhavnani, 2004. "Counting chickens when they hatch: The short-term effect of aid on growth," International Finance 0407010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Arbache, Jorge Saba & Page, John, 2007. "More growth or fewer collapses ? a new look at long run growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4384, The World Bank.
    4. Patrick A. Imam & Eleonara Granziera & Mr. Norbert Funke, 2008. "Terms of Trade Shocks and Economic Recovery," IMF Working Papers 2008/036, International Monetary Fund.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Michele Peruzzi & Alessio Terzi, 2018. "Growth Accelerations Strategies," Growth Lab Working Papers 112, Harvard's Growth Lab.
    2. Bastien BEDOSSA & Gaëlle LETILLY, 2017. "Impacts de la crise en Afrique subsaharienne," Working Paper 84bbf2e4-fd14-41ec-bee5-d, Agence française de développement.
    3. Ndongo Samba Sylla, 2014. "From a marginalised to an emerging Africa? A critical analysis," Review of African Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(sup1), pages 7-25, October.
    4. Jerzmanowski, Michal & Cuberes, David, 2011. "Medium Term Growth: The Role of Policies and Institutions," MPRA Paper 94273, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jul 2011.
    5. Jakob de Haan & Kersten Stamm & Shu Yu, 2024. "Drivers of Investment Accelerations," CESifo Working Paper Series 11100, CESifo.
    6. Kalyvitis, Sarantis & Vlachaki, Irene, 2012. "When does more aid imply less democracy? An empirical examination," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 132-146.
    7. Hostland, Douglas & Giugale, Marcelo M., 2013. "Africa's macroeconomic story," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6635, The World Bank.
    8. Solomon Abayomi Olakojo, 2018. "Foreign Trade and International Financial Flows: Implications for Economic Stability in the Selected ECOWAS Countries," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 22(1), pages 63-103, Winter.
    9. Peruzzi, Michele & Terzi, Alessio, 2021. "Accelerating Economic Growth: The Science beneath the Art," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    10. Mr. Montfort Mlachila & Mr. Tidiane Kinda, 2011. "The Quest for Higher Growth in the WAEMU Region: The Role of Accelerations and Decelerations," IMF Working Papers 2011/174, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth; acceleration; deceleration; Africa; O11; O40;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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