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Measuring The Market Risk Of Freight Rates: A Value-At-Risk Approach

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  • TIMOTHEOS ANGELIDIS

    (Department of Economics, University of Peloponnese, Greece)

  • GEORGE SKIADOPOULOS

    (Department of Banking and Financial Management, University of Piraeus, Greece;
    Financial Options Research Centre, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick, Greece)

Abstract

The fluctuation of shipping freight rates (freight rate risk) is an important source of market risk for all participants in the freight markets including hedge funds, commodity and energy producers. We measure the freight rate risk by the Value-at-Risk (VaR) approach. A range of parametric and non-parametric VaR methods is applied to various popular freight markets for dry and wet cargoes. Backtesting is conducted in two stages by means of statistical tests and a subjective loss function that uses the Expected Shortfall, respectively. We find that the simplest non-parametric methods should be used to measure freight rate risk. In addition, freight rate risk is greater in the wet cargoes markets. The margins in the growing freight derivatives markets should be set accordingly.

Suggested Citation

  • Timotheos Angelidis & George Skiadopoulos, 2008. "Measuring The Market Risk Of Freight Rates: A Value-At-Risk Approach," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(05), pages 447-469.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijtafx:v:11:y:2008:i:05:n:s0219024908004889
    DOI: 10.1142/S0219024908004889
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christoffersen, Peter, 2011. "Elements of Financial Risk Management," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 2, number 9780123744487.
    2. Helyette Geman, 2005. "Commodities and Commodity Derivatives. Modeling and Pricing for Agriculturals, Metals and Energy," Post-Print halshs-00144182, HAL.
    3. repec:dau:papers:123456789/607 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Yingying Kang & Rajan Batta & Changhyun Kwon, 2014. "Value-at-Risk model for hazardous material transportation," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 222(1), pages 361-387, November.
    2. Alexandridis, George & Kavussanos, Manolis G. & Kim, Chi Y. & Tsouknidis, Dimitris A. & Visvikis, Ilias D., 2018. "A survey of shipping finance research: Setting the future research agenda," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 164-212.
    3. Charalampos Basdekis & Apostolos Christopoulos & Alexandros Gkolfinopoulos & Ioannis Katsampoxakis, 2022. "VaR as a risk management framework for the spot and futures tanker markets," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 4287-4352, September.
    4. Kavussanos, Manolis G. & Dimitrakopoulos, Dimitris N., 2011. "Market risk model selection and medium-term risk with limited data: Application to ocean tanker freight markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 258-268.
    5. Goulas, Lambros & Skiadopoulos, George, 2012. "Are freight futures markets efficient? Evidence from IMAREX," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 644-659.
    6. Alizadeh, Amir H., 2013. "Trading volume and volatility in the shipping forward freight market," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 250-265.
    7. Wenming Shi & Kevin X. Li & Zhongzhi Yang & Ganggang Wang, 2017. "Time-varying copula models in the shipping derivatives market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 1039-1058, November.
    8. Javier Población & Gregorio Serna, 2018. "A common long-term trend for bulk shipping prices," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 20(3), pages 421-432, September.
    9. Javier Población & Gregorio Serna, 2021. "Measuring bulk shipping prices risk," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 23(2), pages 291-309, June.
    10. Wessam M. T. Abouarghoub & Iris Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal, 2011. "Measuring level of risk exposure in tanker Shipping freight markets," International Journal of Business and Social Research, LAR Center Press, vol. 1(1), pages 20-44, December.
    11. Kostas Andriosopoulos & Nikos Nomikos, 2012. "Risk management in the energy markets and Value-at-Risk modelling: a Hybrid approach," RSCAS Working Papers 2012/47, European University Institute.

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