IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wsi/ijitmx/v14y2017i02ns0219877017400120.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Peaks, Slopes, Canyons and Plateaus: Identifying Technology Trends Throughout the Life Cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Irina V. Efimenko

    (Faculty of Humanities, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Myasnitskaya St. 20, 101000 Moscow, Russia)

  • Vladimir F. Khoroshevsky

    (Department of Applied Intelligent Systems, Dorodnicyn Computing Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Vavilov St. 40, 119333 Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

A novel domain-independent approach to technology trend monitoring is presented in the paper. It is based on the ontology of a technology trend, hype cycles methodology, and semantic indicators which provide evidence of a maturity level of a technology. This approach forms the basis for implementation of text-mining software tools. Algorithms behind these tools allow users to escape from getting too general or garbage results which make it impossible to identify promising technologies at early stages (early detection, weak signals). Besides, these algorithms provide high-quality results in extraction of complex multiword terms which correspond to technological concepts forming a trend. Methodology and software developed as a result of this study are applicable to various industries with minor adjustments and require no deep expert knowledge from a user.

Suggested Citation

  • Irina V. Efimenko & Vladimir F. Khoroshevsky, 2017. "Peaks, Slopes, Canyons and Plateaus: Identifying Technology Trends Throughout the Life Cycle," International Journal of Innovation and Technology Management (IJITM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 14(02), pages 1-28, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijitmx:v:14:y:2017:i:02:n:s0219877017400120
    DOI: 10.1142/S0219877017400120
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0219877017400120
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1142/S0219877017400120?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ansgar Moeller & Martin G. Moehrle, 2015. "Completing keyword patent search with semantic patent search: introducing a semiautomatic iterative method for patent near search based on semantic similarities," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 102(1), pages 77-96, January.
    2. Alkemade, Floortje & Suurs, Roald A.A., 2012. "Patterns of expectations for emerging sustainable technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 448-456.
    3. van Lente, Harro & Spitters, Charlotte & Peine, Alexander, 2013. "Comparing technological hype cycles: Towards a theory," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(8), pages 1615-1628.
    4. Péter Érdi & Kinga Makovi & Zoltán Somogyvári & Katherine Strandburg & Jan Tobochnik & Péter Volf & László Zalányi, 2013. "Prediction of emerging technologies based on analysis of the US patent citation network," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 95(1), pages 225-242, April.
    5. Small, Henry & Boyack, Kevin W. & Klavans, Richard, 2014. "Identifying emerging topics in science and technology," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(8), pages 1450-1467.
    6. D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel, 2013. "Weak Signal Identification with Semantic Web Mining," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 13/860, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    7. Pehnt, Martin, 2006. "Dynamic life cycle assessment (LCA) of renewable energy technologies," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 55-71.
    8. Evans, Annette & Strezov, Vladimir & Evans, Tim J., 2009. "Assessment of sustainability indicators for renewable energy technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 1082-1088, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shi, Yuwei & Herniman, John, 2023. "The role of expectation in innovation evolution: Exploring hype cycles," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    2. Mostafa Shaaban & Jürgen Scheffran & Jürgen Böhner & Mohamed S. Elsobki, 2018. "Sustainability Assessment of Electricity Generation Technologies in Egypt Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-25, May.
    3. Hong, Sanghyun & Bradshaw, Corey J.A. & Brook, Barry W., 2014. "Nuclear power can reduce emissions and maintain a strong economy: Rating Australia’s optimal future electricity-generation mix by technologies and policies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 712-725.
    4. Kriechbaum, Michael & Posch, Alfred & Hauswiesner, Angelika, 2021. "Hype cycles during socio-technical transitions: The dynamics of collective expectations about renewable energy in Germany," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(9).
    5. Sokka, L. & Sinkko, T. & Holma, A. & Manninen, K. & Pasanen, K. & Rantala, M. & Leskinen, P., 2016. "Environmental impacts of the national renewable energy targets – A case study from Finland," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1599-1610.
    6. Ozgun, Burcu & Broekel, Tom, 2021. "The geography of innovation and technology news - An empirical study of the German news media," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    7. Turconi, Roberto & Boldrin, Alessio & Astrup, Thomas, 2013. "Life cycle assessment (LCA) of electricity generation technologies: Overview, comparability and limitations," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 555-565.
    8. Jha, Sunil Kr. & Bilalovic, Jasmin & Jha, Anju & Patel, Nilesh & Zhang, Han, 2017. "Renewable energy: Present research and future scope of Artificial Intelligence," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 297-317.
    9. Dries Haeseldonckx & William D’haeseleer, 2010. "Hydrogen from Renewables," Chapters, in: François Lévêque & Jean-Michel Glachant & Julián Barquín & Christian von Hirschhausen & Franziska Ho (ed.), Security of Energy Supply in Europe, chapter 10, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Maria Milousi & Athanasios Pappas & Andreas P. Vouros & Giouli Mihalakakou & Manolis Souliotis & Spiros Papaefthimiou, 2022. "Evaluating the Technical and Environmental Capabilities of Geothermal Systems through Life Cycle Assessment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-30, August.
    11. Kriechbaum, Michael & López Prol, Javier & Posch, Alfred, 2018. "Looking back at the future: Dynamics of collective expectations about photovoltaic technology in Germany & Spain," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 76-87.
    12. Strantzali, Eleni & Aravossis, Konstantinos, 2016. "Decision making in renewable energy investments: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 885-898.
    13. Steinkraus, Arne, 2015. "Coal and Gas - From Cradle to Grave with Carbon Capture and Storage," Economics Department Working Paper Series 14, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Economics Department.
    14. Zhang, Yi & Wu, Mengjia & Miao, Wen & Huang, Lu & Lu, Jie, 2021. "Bi-layer network analytics: A methodology for characterizing emerging general-purpose technologies," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4).
    15. Li, Munan & Porter, Alan L. & Suominen, Arho & Burmaoglu, Serhat & Carley, Stephen, 2021. "An exploratory perspective to measure the emergence degree for a specific technology based on the philosophy of swarm intelligence," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    16. Saner, Dominik & Juraske, Ronnie & Kübert, Markus & Blum, Philipp & Hellweg, Stefanie & Bayer, Peter, 2010. "Is it only CO2 that matters? A life cycle perspective on shallow geothermal systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(7), pages 1798-1813, September.
    17. Kirkels, Arjan, 2016. "Biomass boom or bubble? A longitudinal study on expectation dynamics," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 83-96.
    18. Rotolo, Daniele & Hicks, Diana & Martin, Ben R., 2015. "What is an emerging technology?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(10), pages 1827-1843.
    19. Arcos-Vargas, Angel & Cansino, José M. & Román-Collado, Rocío, 2018. "Economic and environmental analysis of a residential PV system: A profitable contribution to the Paris agreement," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 1024-1035.
    20. Huang, Lu & Chen, Xiang & Ni, Xingxing & Liu, Jiarun & Cao, Xiaoli & Wang, Changtian, 2021. "Tracking the dynamics of co-word networks for emerging topic identification," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsi:ijitmx:v:14:y:2017:i:02:n:s0219877017400120. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tai Tone Lim (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.worldscinet.com/ijitm/ijitm.shtml .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.