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Exchange-Rate Volatility and Industry Trade Between Japan and China

Author

Listed:
  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee

    (University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee)

  • Scott W. Hegerty

    (Northeastern Illinois University)

  • Jia Xu

    (St. Mary’s College of Maryland)

Abstract

Exchange-rate risk is often thought to reduce international trade flows, but numerous theoretical and empirical analyses have pointed toward positive as well as negative effects. This is particularly true when bilateral trade flows for individual industries are estimated. In this study, we extend the literature to the case of Japanese trade with China for 110 import industries and 95 export industries. Aggregate Japanese exports, but not imports, respond to real exchange rate volatility in the long run, while most individual export and import industries respond in the short run. Although many individual Japanese import industries are affected in the long run by risk, mostly negatively, this is even more the case for exporters. A larger proportion of Japanese export industries are affected by exchange rate uncertainty for most industry sectors. Manufacturing exports are particularly vulnerable to this risk, with a large share responding negatively to increased volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty & Jia Xu, 2012. "Exchange-Rate Volatility and Industry Trade Between Japan and China," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 1-21, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:gejxxx:v:12:y:2012:i:03:n:1524-5861.1855
    DOI: 10.1515/1524-5861.1855
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Claire Economidou & Gour Gobinda Goswami, 2005. "How sensitive are Britain's inpayments and outpayments to the value of the British pound," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 32(5), pages 455-467, October.
    2. Chou, W. L., 2000. "Exchange Rate Variability and China's Exports," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 61-79, March.
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    4. Michael D. McKenzie, 1999. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 71-106, February.
    5. Hassan Mohammadi & Murat Cak & Demet Cak, 2008. "Wagner's hypothesis," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 35(1), pages 94-106, January.
    6. Ferda Halicioglu, 2007. "The J‐curve dynamics of Turkish bilateral trade: a cointegration approach," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(2), pages 103-119, May.
    7. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan & Biman Chand Prasad & Arti Prasad, 2007. "Export‐led growth hypothesis: evidence from Papua New Guinea and Fiji," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(4), pages 341-351, September.
    8. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Harvey, Hanafiah, 2011. "Exchange-rate volatility and industry trade between the U.S. and Malaysia," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 127-155, June.
    9. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    10. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty, 2007. "Exchange rate volatility and trade flows: a review article," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(3), pages 211-255, August.
    11. Won-Cheol Yun, 2012. "Yuan revaluation and its implications," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 149-154, February.
    12. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Hegerty, Scott W. & Kutan, Ali M., 2008. "Do nominal devaluations lead to real devaluations? Evidence from 89 countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 644-670, October.
    13. M Bahmani-Oskooee & Y Wang, 2007. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Commodity Trade between the U.S. and China," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 12(1), pages 31-52, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chandan Sharma, 2019. "Exchange rate volatility and exports from India: a commodity-level panel data analysis," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 12(1), pages 23-44, June.
    2. Jia Xu & Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Huseyin Karamelikli, 2022. "On the link between U.S.‐China commodity trade and exchange rate uncertainty: An asymmetric analysis," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 87-137, March.
    3. Mohammad Abul Kashem & Mohammad Mafizur Rahman & Rasheda Khanam, 2022. "Improving Australia's trade balance: A case study of agro‐forest and fish products," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(3), pages 494-533, September.
    4. Abdorreza Soleymani & Soo Y. Chua, 2014. "Effect of exchange rate volatility on industry trade flows between Malaysia and China," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(5), pages 626-655, August.
    5. Muhammad Aftab & Karim Bux Shah Syed & Naveed Akhter Katper, 2017. "Exchange-rate volatility and Malaysian-Thai bilateral industry trade flows," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 44(1), pages 99-114, January.
    6. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Jungho Baek, 2021. "On the asymmetric effects of exchange‐rate volatility on trade flows: Evidence from Korea‐U.S. commodity trade," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 594-629, December.
    7. Abdul Rashid & Shahid Mahmood Waqar, 2017. "Exchange rate fluctuations, firm size, and export behavior: an empirical investigation," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 609-625, October.
    8. Muhammad Aftab & Karim Bux Shah Syed & Rubi Ahmad & Izlin Ismail, 2016. "Exchange-rate variability and industry trade flows between Malaysia and Japan," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 453-478, June.
    9. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2015. "Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility and Commodity Trade between U.S. and Singapore," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 5, pages 22-40, February.
    10. Güzin Bayar, 2018. "Estimating export equations: a survey of the literature," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 629-672, March.
    11. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Jungho Baek & Scott W. Hegerty, 2016. "GARCH-based versus traditional measures of exchange-rate volatility: evidence from Korean industry trade," International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(2), pages 103-136.

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